Alright Here's An Alpha Thread On Research Methodology Strategy. @SamuelXeus
@PrudentSammy
Pt. 1
What I Put Into Consideration As An AA-RATED Fundamental Analyst ππ
Remember It's a 99% Research, 1% Aping Strategy.
@PrudentSammy
Pt. 1
What I Put Into Consideration As An AA-RATED Fundamental Analyst ππ
Remember It's a 99% Research, 1% Aping Strategy.
β»οΈSeed Sale/Private Sale Price
β»οΈToken Unlocks and Token Unlock Size
β»οΈTokenomics (Token Distribution, Supply and Demand)
β»οΈLiquidity & TVL of Project
β»οΈSignificance In Roadmap
β»οΈTeam/Developers/Audit
β»οΈToken Unlocks and Token Unlock Size
β»οΈTokenomics (Token Distribution, Supply and Demand)
β»οΈLiquidity & TVL of Project
β»οΈSignificance In Roadmap
β»οΈTeam/Developers/Audit
β»οΈMarketing
β»οΈUtility
β»οΈIncoming Catalysts
β»οΈGreed Factor
β»οΈUtility
β»οΈIncoming Catalysts
β»οΈGreed Factor
β»οΈ Mold Your Bias
β»οΈ Trend/Narratives
β»οΈ Dips Of Trending Tokens
β»οΈ The Competitor's Bias Strategy
β»οΈ Trend/Narratives
β»οΈ Dips Of Trending Tokens
β»οΈ The Competitor's Bias Strategy
β»οΈ The Seed Sale/Private Sale Price:
This is a one of the most important factor to consider when making your research on a project and supposedly should be the first you put to heart.
This is a one of the most important factor to consider when making your research on a project and supposedly should be the first you put to heart.
Knowing This Early Puts You In The Position To Know Why You Should Even Make An Intensive Research On That Project You Just Found Out About.
Presale and IDO Prices are not as relevant as the seed/Private Sale prices. Remember that Seed/Private investors are the most earliest
Presale and IDO Prices are not as relevant as the seed/Private Sale prices. Remember that Seed/Private investors are the most earliest
in any project that is being launched and brought into existence.
Some of the seed investors happen to be huge whales, Big Hedgefund Companies and Venture Capitalists like the Fenbushi Capital, Pantera Capital, Alameda Research, Morningstar Ventures, Animoca Brands, YGG Games
Some of the seed investors happen to be huge whales, Big Hedgefund Companies and Venture Capitalists like the Fenbushi Capital, Pantera Capital, Alameda Research, Morningstar Ventures, Animoca Brands, YGG Games
Hashed, a16z etc .
Let's say project A seed sale price was $0.02 and at presale price was $0.05. At that point the Seed Investors are already 2.5X up.
Well that's not a big deal, Now let's say on launch the coin went as high as $0.4. That's a 20X up already from seed sale price
Let's say project A seed sale price was $0.02 and at presale price was $0.05. At that point the Seed Investors are already 2.5X up.
Well that's not a big deal, Now let's say on launch the coin went as high as $0.4. That's a 20X up already from seed sale price
Now one of the most ugly thing is some of these projects with such a high upturn might still be in its mid marketcap and then still be attractive to you.
But that's already a big red flag π©.
I Repeat a big red flag π©
But that's already a big red flag π©.
I Repeat a big red flag π©
Know how many Xs has it done from seed sale (could consider presale sometimes), the seed/private sale price and what's the current market price
The more Xs it has done the more likely there's gonna be huge constant sell pressure from seed/Private investors
The more Xs it has done the more likely there's gonna be huge constant sell pressure from seed/Private investors
(also presale / IDO)
Most of the time some of these YouTube and Twitter Influencers tend to act like they are the first and only people in a project and sometimes keep promoting projects where VC are up 50x and they donβt even know.
Most of the time some of these YouTube and Twitter Influencers tend to act like they are the first and only people in a project and sometimes keep promoting projects where VC are up 50x and they donβt even know.
Now you can get information about the Seed/Private Sale Price from the project's whitepaper or from asking in their community via discord, telegram, Twitter etc and then note it down.
Next Thing I Want To Look Out For Is π
β»οΈToken Release/Unlocks and Token Unlock Size; The amounts and time frames, how often are tokens released into circulation( team tokens + seed or presale )
This sometimes is what we commonly refer to as Vesting Schedules Of The Project.
β»οΈToken Release/Unlocks and Token Unlock Size; The amounts and time frames, how often are tokens released into circulation( team tokens + seed or presale )
This sometimes is what we commonly refer to as Vesting Schedules Of The Project.
The more tokens constantly put into circulation increases the mcap with the price staying the same and not rising hence the less chance of gains and the more chance the price keeps dumping.
99.9% On News Of Token Unlocks Usually Leads To A Dump In That Project.
99.9% On News Of Token Unlocks Usually Leads To A Dump In That Project.
Now How does knowing about Token Unlock Schedules help you?
Well you could be very bullish on a project, especially when you see clear and solid fundamentals, sentiments, a very unique utility on such project and might want to ape in.
Well you could be very bullish on a project, especially when you see clear and solid fundamentals, sentiments, a very unique utility on such project and might want to ape in.
Now other than the use of Technical Analysis, information on token unlocks will save you a misfortune of going into that project at a wrong time. Yes the token looks very good but then you are now buying when more tokens are going to be released into
circulation thereby reducing the demand for it and increasing supply.
With inflation via increase in supply, an increase in sell pressure follows immediately and the token begins to dump.
With inflation via increase in supply, an increase in sell pressure follows immediately and the token begins to dump.
So make sure you know token unlock dates/schedules to save yourself from making such mistakes.
Now you heard about an upcoming token unlock and still you observed that the token didn't dump as hard as you felt it would.
Suddenly, You start wondering why it was so? π€
Now you heard about an upcoming token unlock and still you observed that the token didn't dump as hard as you felt it would.
Suddenly, You start wondering why it was so? π€
This is where the Token Unlock Size Comes In π.
It sometimes wasn't really about the news of Token Unlocks but also the size of tokens to be unlocked.
Let's say project B has a total supply of 15000 tokens and a circulating supply of 3000 tokens
It sometimes wasn't really about the news of Token Unlocks but also the size of tokens to be unlocked.
Let's say project B has a total supply of 15000 tokens and a circulating supply of 3000 tokens
and then we hear of upcoming Token Unlocks.
Assuming the token unlock size or % is 10% for the d-date (1200 out of the 12000 tokens left).
Assuming the token unlock size or % is 10% for the d-date (1200 out of the 12000 tokens left).
This takes the Circulating supply to 4200 and the remaining tokens out of circulation to 11800 which is still a huge amount as regards the total supply of that token.
Meaning about 78.6% of the total supply is still out of circulation.
Meaning about 78.6% of the total supply is still out of circulation.
This could barely cause Fud around the project as it will still be in high demand and barely see a decline in its value.
Now try to see from this angle...how about we do a reverse..Put out 78.6% (i.e 11800 tokens) of the total supply of 15000 tokens into circulation π
Now try to see from this angle...how about we do a reverse..Put out 78.6% (i.e 11800 tokens) of the total supply of 15000 tokens into circulation π
That means 8180 tokens was added to the 3000 tokens in circulation already.
This is enough FUD already, Crazy inflation with probably release of tokens to early seed, private and presale investors which will cause a
This is enough FUD already, Crazy inflation with probably release of tokens to early seed, private and presale investors which will cause a
massive sell off of the token as they would want to claim some profits and hence the dump.
A very huge one π
A very huge one π
The next thing I would look into is
β»οΈ Token Economics (Token Allocation/Distribution, Supply and Demand).
Check how the tokens are distributed to the team,seed investors, the presalers, general public, Liquidity pool etc to know if its a healthy one.
β»οΈ Token Economics (Token Allocation/Distribution, Supply and Demand).
Check how the tokens are distributed to the team,seed investors, the presalers, general public, Liquidity pool etc to know if its a healthy one.
If its not a healthy one with the token allocation, 95% of the the time refrain yourself from putting in more efforts to research on that token.
Check the supply of the token ; is it relatively too high?
Check the supply of the token ; is it relatively too high?
What's the supply mechanism behind the token?
Is it inflationary or deflationary?
What type of project are we talking about? Is it a coin, P2E token, node token, reward tokens etc.
Is it inflationary or deflationary?
What type of project are we talking about? Is it a coin, P2E token, node token, reward tokens etc.
Websites such as CoinMarketCap.com and CoinGecko.com, dappradar.com, dexscreener.com and Blockchain Explorers (Bscscan.com, Etherscan.io etc) are some of the easiest to navigate and understand.
CoinGecko.com
Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts, and Crypto Market Cap | CoinGecko
View top cryptocurrency prices live, crypto charts, market cap, and trading volume. Discover todayβs...
Bscscan.com
dexscreener.com
DEX Screener
Realtime price charts and trading history on DEXes across Ethereum, BSC, Polygon, Avalanche, Fantom,...
Etherscan.io
CoinMarketCap.com
Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts And Market Capitalizations | CoinMarketCap
Top cryptocurrency prices and charts, listed by market capitalization. Free access to current and hi...
dappradar.com
DappRadar - The Worldβs Dapp Store | Blockchain Dapps Ranked
Explore NFTs, NFT Marketplaces, Blockchain Games, De-Fi, Dapps On The Blockchain And More On The Wor...
They also have useful links to the websites, blogs, useful stats.
Now back to where we stopped.
When we say a token's supply mechanism is inflationary, what do we mean?
Well we simply mean that there is constant increment in the number of circulating supply. Now there could be some reasons to this; it could be be it was actually a reward token
When we say a token's supply mechanism is inflationary, what do we mean?
Well we simply mean that there is constant increment in the number of circulating supply. Now there could be some reasons to this; it could be be it was actually a reward token
a rebase token that increases by adding tokens to supply depending on the algorithmic supply mechanism.
For instance you could buy 1010000 pieces of coin X and in the next 24hrs wake up to see 1010150 tokens.
This shows that some tokens has being added to your initial holdings
For instance you could buy 1010000 pieces of coin X and in the next 24hrs wake up to see 1010150 tokens.
This shows that some tokens has being added to your initial holdings
If its deflationary, it means that the token supply is reduced over time thus driving demand and increasing its scarcity. This overtime fulfils the Laws of demand which says and i quote....
"The Higher The Demand, The Higher The Price/Value Of An Asset"
"The Higher The Demand, The Higher The Price/Value Of An Asset"
The project could initiate this by also by buybacks of the token and burning these tokens forever or using the negative rebase supply mechanism whereby tokens are reduced in your wallets to help slightly increase the price.
So let's say there are 100,000 pieces of a coin and you
So let's say there are 100,000 pieces of a coin and you
hold about 1000 pieces of that token each valued at $1. If we experience a negative rebase of 10% from the supply, the total supply reduces to 90,000 and your holdings to 900 tokens with each now valued at $1.11 (expected ideal price but in reality it varies depending on various
factors) instead of $1 per token.
i.e 100,000 divided by 90,000 or 10% + $1.
Check if its a node project to know how many tokens would be required to create a node. By this it would help reducing the circulating supply of that token; and also the supply mechanism integrated.
i.e 100,000 divided by 90,000 or 10% + $1.
Check if its a node project to know how many tokens would be required to create a node. By this it would help reducing the circulating supply of that token; and also the supply mechanism integrated.
So let me narrow what I just said above...
1. Seed and Private Sale Price; avoid tokens that are 10 to 20X+ above seed sale price
2. Token Unlocks and Token Unlock Size (Very important) no matter how green its looking
3. Tokenomics (Allocation, Supply and Demand)
1. Seed and Private Sale Price; avoid tokens that are 10 to 20X+ above seed sale price
2. Token Unlocks and Token Unlock Size (Very important) no matter how green its looking
3. Tokenomics (Allocation, Supply and Demand)
It should be noted that no project will openly put out a news that they are having token unlocks as they all know it could be detrimental to the project.
So you have can use hashtags #TokenUnlock or #TokenUnlocks and get words of rumours on some of the upcoming ones
So you have can use hashtags #TokenUnlock or #TokenUnlocks and get words of rumours on some of the upcoming ones
You can go to their telegram or discord page etc and ask first hand. Buying Into a fundamentally good token that has an incoming token unlock can help send you to the trenches π.
Another way is to check on the project's whitepaper for their token unlock/vesting schedules.
Another way is to check on the project's whitepaper for their token unlock/vesting schedules.
Once they meet the three key points outlined above, then you can now channel much of your energy into the project proper to further research on it.
Now before i talk on the Liquidity and TVL (Total Value Locked) of the project , its best you check out the whitepaper
Now before i talk on the Liquidity and TVL (Total Value Locked) of the project , its best you check out the whitepaper
of the project.
This tells you everything you need to know about the project. Make sure you carefully read through it and make a few line summary of the most unique observations you saw.
This tells you everything you need to know about the project. Make sure you carefully read through it and make a few line summary of the most unique observations you saw.
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