5 great mental rules you should abide by if you're just starting out in Crypto / Web3 ๐งต๐
Not exhaustive, but from personal experience, if you can apply these and derive the extensions of these, you can do well in the markets.
Not exhaustive, but from personal experience, if you can apply these and derive the extensions of these, you can do well in the markets.
1/ Context:
I'm no TA, nor am i some sort of 20 year experience at a hedgefund
Just a regular guy, which may be beneficial to most of you reading who are also regular people, because i always make it simple
My thesis is always simple; trade emotions, trade narratives.
I'm no TA, nor am i some sort of 20 year experience at a hedgefund
Just a regular guy, which may be beneficial to most of you reading who are also regular people, because i always make it simple
My thesis is always simple; trade emotions, trade narratives.
2/ Rule 1#
FOCUS on yourself. Only yourself.
You're accountable for your own success.
Anyone shilling something has an internal bias
Huge following acc talking about $coin? He's definitely bought in at a lower price than you
FOCUS on yourself. Only yourself.
You're accountable for your own success.
Anyone shilling something has an internal bias
Huge following acc talking about $coin? He's definitely bought in at a lower price than you
3/ "But what about those people who claim they have a 90% hit rate"
Realise the market is random, no one genuinely knows what they're doing
Numbers can be faked. Don't trust, there's no free lunch in life.
Realise the market is random, no one genuinely knows what they're doing
Numbers can be faked. Don't trust, there's no free lunch in life.
4/ A: I have viewed 6000 white swans and conclude there is no black swan in the world
B: There exists a black swan
B: There exists a black swan
5/ In no world can statement A be proved unless there was a way to confirm he has viewed all past present and future swans
B however is easily proved, you just need a counterexample
Likewise, you only have a 90% hit rate until you don't.
B however is easily proved, you just need a counterexample
Likewise, you only have a 90% hit rate until you don't.
6/ Point is, you can have a 90% probability in winning russian roulette as well
until you don't
and when you don't you die
I could go into the expected value of magnitude vs probability as well but i'm really digressing here
until you don't
and when you don't you die
I could go into the expected value of magnitude vs probability as well but i'm really digressing here
7/ Keeping yourself accountable is very important
You only have yourself to blame
If you got rugged, don't blame the devs
they can't help you
blame yourself that you didn't do proper research
only then can you learn
You only have yourself to blame
If you got rugged, don't blame the devs
they can't help you
blame yourself that you didn't do proper research
only then can you learn
8/ Rule 2: Keep your emotions in check
Easier said than done, but like I said I have 0 experience. My edge has to lie something outside of technicality, and that is being able to detach my trades from emotions
Easier said than done, but like I said I have 0 experience. My edge has to lie something outside of technicality, and that is being able to detach my trades from emotions
9/ Your NFT price is going down but you feel attached and want to diamondhand?
You're better off selling
Your coin is going to the moon, you're euphoric and you think it'll just keep running up?
Dump it
You're better off selling
Your coin is going to the moon, you're euphoric and you think it'll just keep running up?
Dump it
10/ If you don't remember everything I say, just screenshot this:
Sell when you feel like taking a screenshot, buy it back when it feels like it's going to 0
The buyback part is contextual, but the selling part is generic
Sell when you feel like taking a screenshot, buy it back when it feels like it's going to 0
The buyback part is contextual, but the selling part is generic
11/ Doing the opposite of your emotions will help you immensely
I know it's helped me.
Also credits to @fishxbt for coming up with the quote;
I know it's helped me.
Also credits to @fishxbt for coming up with the quote;
12/ Rule 3:
Stay in your lane. Minimize choices to avoid more errors, easier to not rotate. Conviction is an edge.
The greater number of plays you're in, the higher the probability for error.
This also relates closely to FOMO, which is sort of rule #2
Stay in your lane. Minimize choices to avoid more errors, easier to not rotate. Conviction is an edge.
The greater number of plays you're in, the higher the probability for error.
This also relates closely to FOMO, which is sort of rule #2
13/ See someone do a 1000x on NFTs but you're not a NFT trader?
Or see some coin go 100x but you're in NFTs?
feeling like you're missing out makes you more risk on, wanting to ape in for that 100x. It's bad, it disadvantages you.
When you feel it, just shut it down.
Or see some coin go 100x but you're in NFTs?
feeling like you're missing out makes you more risk on, wanting to ape in for that 100x. It's bad, it disadvantages you.
When you feel it, just shut it down.
14/ Talk to yourself, tell yourself that you're not going to let it get into your head.
Sounds stupid but it works.
Stay in your own lane until you are very sure that you are comfortable enough to change lanes
Sounds stupid but it works.
Stay in your own lane until you are very sure that you are comfortable enough to change lanes
15/
Rule #4
Always assume you're wrong. Everyday, wake up and check the price.
The current price today is your entry price.
Bought a coin at $1 and now it's $10? Assume entry is $10.
Would you buy in at $10? No? Dump
Yes? Then consider other factors
Rule #4
Always assume you're wrong. Everyday, wake up and check the price.
The current price today is your entry price.
Bought a coin at $1 and now it's $10? Assume entry is $10.
Would you buy in at $10? No? Dump
Yes? Then consider other factors
16/ PnL throwing you off? Sell everything and buy it back immediately, helps you clear that psychological color of red/green and make you think clearer
It's very important to learn to let go, and learn when to rebalance your port
It's very important to learn to let go, and learn when to rebalance your port
17/ Rule #5
Have analysis sessions with yourself when you make a good / bad trade.
Understand why you did what you did, and in the future you can learn to avoid/repeat that
You might do the same thing again, but over time it'll stick
Have analysis sessions with yourself when you make a good / bad trade.
Understand why you did what you did, and in the future you can learn to avoid/repeat that
You might do the same thing again, but over time it'll stick
18/ Write it down to make it stick.
Your good lessons, your bad mistakes, write it all down and really dig deep into your psyche
Why did you do X?
Did you really do your due diligence or did you just ape because everyone was doing it?
Your good lessons, your bad mistakes, write it all down and really dig deep into your psyche
Why did you do X?
Did you really do your due diligence or did you just ape because everyone was doing it?
19/ Ultimately investing is pvp, but your greatest enemy is also yourself.
"Yourself" is basically the amalgamation of all the thoughts in your head, that constantly beat at you every second of every day
Bad thoughts = bad processes = bad trades
"Yourself" is basically the amalgamation of all the thoughts in your head, that constantly beat at you every second of every day
Bad thoughts = bad processes = bad trades
20/ And as someone who doesn't daytrade, who just manages his position once in a while
who has no experience in HFs / IB / any financial institution
how can my edge come from my technicals? How will i compete?
who has no experience in HFs / IB / any financial institution
how can my edge come from my technicals? How will i compete?
21/ No, my edge has to come from within
The ability to control yourself and to focus on yourself, to only make slow but steady +EV trades over the long term
That's an edge to me.
The ability to control yourself and to focus on yourself, to only make slow but steady +EV trades over the long term
That's an edge to me.
22/ Hope you enjoyed my thread, and I wish you a very merry day
~gn
~gn
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