What happened to Timo Werner? A thread
(RT’s & likes would be much appreciated)
(RT’s & likes would be much appreciated)
Let’s rewind the clock a bit, it’s summer 2020, there’s a “top striker” available on the market & many top clubs including Liverpool are interested, ultimately it’s Chelsea who get their man & fans were excited to finally have got the striker they’ve dreamed of…
But things haven’t worked out the way they’ve planned, Werner’s goal numbers have dropped off drastically & fans have been left disappointed, has he declined? Was it just “Bundesliga tax?” Well let’s analyse Werner to see where things went wrong
First of all it’s important to note Werner is someone who thrives in space in behind, look at these goals during his Leipzig days, almost all of them are from him running in behind, he loves quick, counter attacking football with his face to goal
But Chelsea are a possession based team, many teams we play against play a low block, therefore there’s many times where he has to play with his back to goal with hardly any space in behind, here Chelsea do brilliantly to escape the press, but Werner’s poor first touch ruins it
Julian Nagelsmann, who used to coach Werner, said that the reason he didn’t play him in the big Champions League game vs Atletico was because he doesn’t do well against low blocks, players do much better/worse in certain systems as their strengths/weaknesses are shown more
This actually makes this statistic not as surprising, Werner has scored more goals against the high pressing Southampton than against all other Premier league teams combined
His finishing has also frustrated fans, scoring only 6 goals & being in the lowest percentile for goals - xg in the world, however in the Bundesliga not only was he outperforming his Xg, but more worryingly his shots dropped from 123 to 79 after joining the Prem, what happened?
Well firstly the creativity in this team is horrendous, there have been many times where Werner & others have made runs that haven’t been found, so not only does he not get as much space, but when he does he’s not even being found, our top scorer was J5 with 7 pens last season
Tuchel has also talked about how Werner lacks confidence, this makes sense as he’s always been someone who needs a lot of chances to score, even at Leipzig, but now he’s getting less chances to score as his xg per 90 has decreased every season since joining the Premier League
While the fans have been supportive of Werner overall at games, I imagine this Chelsea “fan” didn’t do Werner’s confidence any good in pre season as I’m sure Werner would’ve seen this video during a time his confidence was shattered…
The Premier League is the only top 5 league where keepers outperform their post shot XG whilst the Bundesliga has by far the worst, it’s easier for strikers to gain confidence there, but particularly for Werner as the Bundesliga press the most = more space in behind
It also doesn’t help that Werner has been played out of position a lot at Chelsea compared to his time at Leipzig where he was almost always used as a striker, particularly in a 2 man strike force with a strong striker who could hold up the ball for him to run in behind
Werner spoke about this himself, he clearly thought Lukaku was gonna play next to him in a 2 man strike force, but for a multitude of reasons (wingback injuries, Tuchel not being allowed to get the right transfer targets, Lukaku’s interview etc) this hasn’t happened much
Funnily enough the only 2 games where Werner has scored more than once this season has been in a 2 man strike force, Werner’s movement is excellent as it frees up space not only for him, but for others as well, which is particular useful in a 2 man strike force
In fact one of the greatest goals in Chelsea’s history is down to Werner’s movement, watch how Werner pulls his marker away to create tons of space for Havertz to run into, Werner doesn’t get the assist or the goal, but stats don’t show you everything
But it’s difficult for Werner to use that movement to create space for others vs low blocks, he’s someone who needs space to be effective, this is why clubs need to be careful in choosing which players to buy, its why Bayern didn’t sign Pepe despite so many top clubs wanting him
His elite movement also allows him to get assists, his passing is quite good to players in space & his cutbacks in the penalty box means he can always be a threat, he had our most assists last season & even won us 5 penalties
So Werner suits direct with players who can find his runs, a 2 man strike force, & can create plenty of chances for himself, but he needs a lot of chances to score, otherwise his confidence gets worse, he has an awful first touch, can’t hold up the ball, & struggles without space
It seems clear that Chelsea made a mistake buying him, but does that mean he’s a bad player? Nope, sure he might not be Premier league title winning standard, but his attributes from Leipzig are still there, teams will be interested in buying him & he’ll have success
So where should Werner go? A counter attacking team is definitely a great option, I think it’s best for him to return to the Bundesliga, with tons of space to thrive in, & returning to his home nation possibly giving him more confidence, I think we may see Timo shine again
End of thread
It’s a shame Werner hasn’t worked out here so far, but there’s still a good player in there, it’s important to buy the right profiles over names & hopefully we learn from that
Any new followers & RT would be much appreciated👌
It’s a shame Werner hasn’t worked out here so far, but there’s still a good player in there, it’s important to buy the right profiles over names & hopefully we learn from that
Any new followers & RT would be much appreciated👌
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