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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51: The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.4 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The extent of destruction to Ukrainian cities due to recent fighting is becoming more apparent as UN UNOSAT data becomes available. t.me
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while restricting ground movement.
4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces remained focused on fixing Ukrainian maneuver units in the Kharkiv area while screening the movement of Russian forces from Belgorod to Izium. Ukrainian forces appear to be opting for limited attacks against Russian critical targets. #kharkhiv
5/ The Ukrainian SOF attack on the railroad bridge in Shebekino is indicative of the type of Ukrainian offensive action we will see in the Kharkiv OD so the foreseeable future. Raids of this nature are crucial to defeating Russian operations near Izium.
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue daily small-scale attacks SE & SW of Izium and against Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna. Russia continues to feed reinforcements piecemeal into combat like they did around Kyiv.
7/ This approach squanders what offensive capability Russia has left. Conversely this plays to Ukraine’s defensive strengths and will allow Ukrainian forces to gradually attrit Russian combat power and enable transition to more significant counterattacks.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
9/ The Ukrainian Resistance Center states that partisan activity has been ongoing in Melitopol since mid-March. Active Partisan cells, coupled with civil resistance, consumes considerable combat power, denying these forces for operations elsewhere. sprotyv.mod.gov.ua
10/ Mariupol. The situation in Mariupol continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian defenders, yet they hold on to SW & central Mariupol. It is unclear how much longer they can hold out, but the increase of Russian strike activity suggests they have heavily damaged Russian forces.
12/ Aerospace Assessment. According to Oryx, Russia has lost a total of 32 UAVs since 24 Feb, 21 of which have been destroyed while the other 11 have been captured. The Ukrainian forces report 6x Orlan-10 recon UAVs destroyed in the Donbas this week. oryxspioenkop.com
13/ Chem-Bio-Nuclear. Though it is difficult to verify if the Russians did conduct a chemical attack in Mariupol, it is possible this attack occured. Mariupol is ideal to test delivery of chemical munitions by UAV, given the ambiguity of information coming from the city.
14/ Battle Damage Assessment. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 attacks throughout the Donbas over the past 24 hours, destroying 4x tanks, 6x armored vehicles, 4x unarmored vehicles, and 1x artillery system.
15/ Information Advantage. The sinking of the Black Seas Fleet flagship, the Moskva, is an important psychological victory for Ukraine, being the largest ship sunk in combat since World War II. The Moskva was the only BSF ship with long-range air defense.
16/ Resisting Occupation. The arrest of Viktor Medvedchuck is an important political victory for Ukraine, as Medvedchuck (who escaped house arrest in February) was the Kremlin’s strongest Ukrainian government ally. cnb.cx
17/ Overall Assessment. Both Ukraine and Russia will not reenter negotiations until they have gained a clear upper hand through operational success in the Donbas. Continued battlefield failures will make the Kremlin more erratic and prone to resort to desperate measures.
18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
19/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.
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