Why does a card counter make it quickly in Crypto? ♠️
Once upon a time I was a blackjack card counter 🂡
Here's 10 lessons from a card counter to make it in crypto: 🧵
Once upon a time I was a blackjack card counter 🂡
Here's 10 lessons from a card counter to make it in crypto: 🧵
In my journey to get rich quick I came up with the ridiculous idea to become a card counter
I don't have a photographic memory and I am not Math Savant like Rainman, (I did have a profile pic of the Genius of Good Will hunting, but that’s just because I love the movie) 🂢
I don't have a photographic memory and I am not Math Savant like Rainman, (I did have a profile pic of the Genius of Good Will hunting, but that’s just because I love the movie) 🂢
This is a long thread, from an even longer article featured in @Route2FI 's newsletter.
🂣
🂣
This is a long thread, here's a mindmap so you don't lose track of the bigger picture.
Created by the awesome @coyotevn - "the DeFi Mindmap Friend"
If you're intrigued how card counting applies to crypto, please read on:
🂤
Created by the awesome @coyotevn - "the DeFi Mindmap Friend"
If you're intrigued how card counting applies to crypto, please read on:
🂤
Btw most pple don't know card counting is perfectly legal
Let me explain the basics of card counting:
(it's easier than you think)
Can you:
- subtract + add numbers?
- do simple divisions?
Yes?
Then you got what it takes to become a card counter and beat the casino
🂥
Let me explain the basics of card counting:
(it's easier than you think)
Can you:
- subtract + add numbers?
- do simple divisions?
Yes?
Then you got what it takes to become a card counter and beat the casino
🂥
STEP 1 - PERFECT BASIC STRATEGY
Memorize this chart.
-> Minimize the casino's advantage by best card combinations (your odds go from ~44% to 47-49%)
STEP 2 – HI-LO SYSTEM
Assign a value to each card:
Low cards 2-6 = +1
Neutral cards7-9 = 0
High cards10- Ace = -1
🂦
Memorize this chart.
-> Minimize the casino's advantage by best card combinations (your odds go from ~44% to 47-49%)
STEP 2 – HI-LO SYSTEM
Assign a value to each card:
Low cards 2-6 = +1
Neutral cards7-9 = 0
High cards10- Ace = -1
🂦
STEP 3 - RUNNING COUNT
Keep a running count based on the Hi-Lo system
Count EVERY card.
Yours, the other players, the dealer’s cards.
You add/subtract EVERY card that is on the table until the dealer shuffles.
This running count can be used with any number of decks.
🂧
Keep a running count based on the Hi-Lo system
Count EVERY card.
Yours, the other players, the dealer’s cards.
You add/subtract EVERY card that is on the table until the dealer shuffles.
This running count can be used with any number of decks.
🂧
How is this useful?
Easy example:
If there’s 7 cards left in the deck and the running count is +7
(→ more low cards have been dealt)
There is a 100% probability that the next 7 cards are high cards (10 - Ace), because the count needs to come to zero
🂨
Easy example:
If there’s 7 cards left in the deck and the running count is +7
(→ more low cards have been dealt)
There is a 100% probability that the next 7 cards are high cards (10 - Ace), because the count needs to come to zero
🂨
STEP 4 - TRUE COUNT
Calculate the count per deck
Do an easy division:
True count = (running count) / (# of decks left)
This true count will then dictate your playing decisions
If you do this perfectly and don't lose count, your edge over the casino is 1-2%
🂹
Calculate the count per deck
Do an easy division:
True count = (running count) / (# of decks left)
This true count will then dictate your playing decisions
If you do this perfectly and don't lose count, your edge over the casino is 1-2%
🂹
HOW TO BEAT THE DEALER
- Play basic strategy blackjack, bet small and bide ur time
- Keeping ur downside low (49%), until the odds turn
- Odds favorable --> increase your bet size
- Casino wins more total hands, bet more when the odds turn, you are winning over time
🂪
- Play basic strategy blackjack, bet small and bide ur time
- Keeping ur downside low (49%), until the odds turn
- Odds favorable --> increase your bet size
- Casino wins more total hands, bet more when the odds turn, you are winning over time
🂪
PROFITS?
Well, that depends on the size of your bankroll.
$1k Bankroll – $10/hr EV; 45% Risk of Ruin
$10k Bankroll – low risk at $16/hr or 33$/hr at 10% Risk of Ruin
$100,000 Bankroll ~$170/hr EV at 1% Risk of Ruin
🂫
Well, that depends on the size of your bankroll.
$1k Bankroll – $10/hr EV; 45% Risk of Ruin
$10k Bankroll – low risk at $16/hr or 33$/hr at 10% Risk of Ruin
$100,000 Bankroll ~$170/hr EV at 1% Risk of Ruin
🂫
LESSONS OF A CARD COUNTER TO MAKE IT IN CRYPTO
1) PROBABILISTIC THINKING
You might get lucky with a meme coin, but there's a high likelihood you won't be able to hold onto your wealth
"The fastest way to make a small fortune is to go the casino with a large fortune"
🂭
1) PROBABILISTIC THINKING
You might get lucky with a meme coin, but there's a high likelihood you won't be able to hold onto your wealth
"The fastest way to make a small fortune is to go the casino with a large fortune"
🂭
No one truly knows what will happen next
If you consistently bet with good odds, it's just a matter of time
If the odds are consistently in ur favor, it's just math
In retrospect you'll see it was inevitable
Want to master this? Read @cobie's:
cobie.substack.com
🂮
If you consistently bet with good odds, it's just a matter of time
If the odds are consistently in ur favor, it's just math
In retrospect you'll see it was inevitable
Want to master this? Read @cobie's:
cobie.substack.com
🂮
2) NEVER GO ALL IN, you retarded ape
Position sizing is key
In card counting an aggressive bet spread overcomes a lot
This means you bet low until the true count becomes favorable, then increase bet size more substantially
This keeps risk low and +EV high
🃁
Position sizing is key
In card counting an aggressive bet spread overcomes a lot
This means you bet low until the true count becomes favorable, then increase bet size more substantially
This keeps risk low and +EV high
🃁
With a 70% winrate there's still a likelihood of losing 5 times in a row
Even with asymmetrical set-ups, size your bets appropriately
You have two assets: your brain and your bankroll. Overbet the bankroll --> Get REKT
🂪🃂
Even with asymmetrical set-ups, size your bets appropriately
You have two assets: your brain and your bankroll. Overbet the bankroll --> Get REKT
🂪🃂
3) FIND YOUR EDGE
Card Counting: Learn to keep the running count and true count
This will give you that 1–2% edge over the casino
Crypto: The possibilities for finding edges are endless
You'll find you've got a knack for something, you might be a natural:
🂪🂣
Card Counting: Learn to keep the running count and true count
This will give you that 1–2% edge over the casino
Crypto: The possibilities for finding edges are endless
You'll find you've got a knack for something, you might be a natural:
🂪🂣
Whale wallet trackoorr
NFT flippooor
Micro cap gem huntoorr
arbitraggoor
Swing traddoor
Scalpoorr
Whatever it is, don't try master everything
Initially focus on your edge and exploit it
Rinse &Repeat
Increase higher sample size, it's just statistics
Keep printing money!
🂪🂤
NFT flippooor
Micro cap gem huntoorr
arbitraggoor
Swing traddoor
Scalpoorr
Whatever it is, don't try master everything
Initially focus on your edge and exploit it
Rinse &Repeat
Increase higher sample size, it's just statistics
Keep printing money!
🂪🂤
4) PERFECT YOUR EDGE
Card counting: It can take 100s of hrs of training to become a profitable card counter
Even if I played the game to perfection I'd still lose hands often
Crypto: Many people don't put in serious time to develop an edge and rely on luck or
🂪🂥
Card counting: It can take 100s of hrs of training to become a profitable card counter
Even if I played the game to perfection I'd still lose hands often
Crypto: Many people don't put in serious time to develop an edge and rely on luck or
🂪🂥
shills from CT or their favorite tiktok or youtube influencer
Lucky apes come and go, but if you don't want to rely on luck.. you NEED to develop an edge
Then...
Forget about winning or losing
Grind, perfect the process and create consistency
🂪🂦
Lucky apes come and go, but if you don't want to rely on luck.. you NEED to develop an edge
Then...
Forget about winning or losing
Grind, perfect the process and create consistency
🂪🂦
5) EMOTIONAL RESILIENCE
Do you think the Casino gets anxious when they lose 5 hands in a row?
That's just absurd..
Yet why do you think there's the expression that 95% of traders lose?
What do we all share?
The same psychological mechanisms
🂪🂧
Do you think the Casino gets anxious when they lose 5 hands in a row?
That's just absurd..
Yet why do you think there's the expression that 95% of traders lose?
What do we all share?
The same psychological mechanisms
🂪🂧
Those same bull & bear swings happen to your portfolio as a card counter
It can take 100s hrs of winning/losing streaks for the math to work out
Meanwhile you have to deal with the emotions of losing streaks
(and equally dangerous Euphoria after winning streaks)
🂪🂨
It can take 100s hrs of winning/losing streaks for the math to work out
Meanwhile you have to deal with the emotions of losing streaks
(and equally dangerous Euphoria after winning streaks)
🂪🂨
How to become part of the profitable 5%:
- Be on guard for your hardwired emotional systems
- Become cold blooded in your analysis and risk management
- Backtest systems and trust edge
Most crypto investors take 1-2 cycles before becoming accustomed to the volatility
🂪🂩
- Be on guard for your hardwired emotional systems
- Become cold blooded in your analysis and risk management
- Backtest systems and trust edge
Most crypto investors take 1-2 cycles before becoming accustomed to the volatility
🂪🂩
6) TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
Whatever happens is the result of ur actions
The math doesn't lie
If you're unprofitable after 1000s hours of sitting at blackjack tables (or staring at charts)
It's not the dealer, it's not the cards
it's not the cute waitress who distracted you
🂪🂪
Whatever happens is the result of ur actions
The math doesn't lie
If you're unprofitable after 1000s hours of sitting at blackjack tables (or staring at charts)
It's not the dealer, it's not the cards
it's not the cute waitress who distracted you
🂪🂪
it's not Alameda
it's not the scammers who rugged you
it's not your indicators
You, and YOU alone, are responsible for your actions!
LEARN! IMPROVE!
🂪🂡
it's not the scammers who rugged you
it's not your indicators
You, and YOU alone, are responsible for your actions!
LEARN! IMPROVE!
🂪🂡
7) QUANTIFY
Card Counting: There can be systematic flaws in your system
Tipping the dealer too much?
Losing track of the count because of that one whiskey?
Systematically underbetting, because of fear you'll be backed off?
Card Counting: There can be systematic flaws in your system
Tipping the dealer too much?
Losing track of the count because of that one whiskey?
Systematically underbetting, because of fear you'll be backed off?
Crypto: Your edge is constantly changing
Does your edge work the same in a bull as in a bear market?
Is your edge losing because of a change in narratives and trends?
Unless you quantify what you're doing, you don't know
Monitor everything with spreadsheets & trading journals
Does your edge work the same in a bull as in a bear market?
Is your edge losing because of a change in narratives and trends?
Unless you quantify what you're doing, you don't know
Monitor everything with spreadsheets & trading journals
8) MARATHON vs. SPRINT
Hollywood depicts card counting as a sprint
As I started on my card counting journey I fantasized about making fortunes overnight
The reality was a stark contrast
You're not trying to win any hand, any game, any trade
Lose the battle, but win the war.
Hollywood depicts card counting as a sprint
As I started on my card counting journey I fantasized about making fortunes overnight
The reality was a stark contrast
You're not trying to win any hand, any game, any trade
Lose the battle, but win the war.
9) PATIENCE
Imagine keeping the running count and true count for 6 decks with hardly favorable odds
No assymetrical bet --> be patient
In crypto you have to adapt to the environment
PVP or Bull?
Don't breakout trade a rangebound market and face death by a 1000 papercuts
Imagine keeping the running count and true count for 6 decks with hardly favorable odds
No assymetrical bet --> be patient
In crypto you have to adapt to the environment
PVP or Bull?
Don't breakout trade a rangebound market and face death by a 1000 papercuts
10) PRIDE, EGO, WANTING TO BE RIGHT
A card counter can blow up his account before the math works out
It's not personal or about being right or wrong
Crypto degens are fixated on the 100x because of our screwed up dopamine systems
Do you ever ask yourself, "What if I'm wrong?"
A card counter can blow up his account before the math works out
It's not personal or about being right or wrong
Crypto degens are fixated on the 100x because of our screwed up dopamine systems
Do you ever ask yourself, "What if I'm wrong?"
Before you smash the buy button, write down what proves you wrong, otherwise cognitive bias sets in
Would you rather lose money than admit you’re wrong and cut the loss?
Would you rather lose money than admit you’re wrong and cut the loss?
A MINDMAP for you visual learner out there, created by the awesome @coyotevn - "the DeFi Mindmap Friend" sums up this whole thread in one image
THE INVENTOR OF CARD COUNTING
was Edward Thorp, a mathematics professor
He made a fortune beating casino's then decided to take on Wall Street
He devised and deployed mathematical formulas to beat the market
Highly recommend his autobiography:
“A Man For All Markets”
was Edward Thorp, a mathematics professor
He made a fortune beating casino's then decided to take on Wall Street
He devised and deployed mathematical formulas to beat the market
Highly recommend his autobiography:
“A Man For All Markets”
Another classic is this episode with OG @lightcrypto & @zhusu where he explained how poker give him a good mindset for Crypto and Trading
Thanks for the recommendation @WClementeIII
Thanks for the recommendation @WClementeIII
If you like the topic of blackjack and poker in relation to crypto, give this piece by @thedefiedge a read!
@TaikiMaeda2 has made a name for himself as a reliable Youtuber in the world of DeFi, I frequently count on him for his valuable insights.
Not surprised when he shared his past as a professional poker player, his attitude gave it away long before ;)
youtube.com
Not surprised when he shared his past as a professional poker player, his attitude gave it away long before ;)
youtube.com
@TaikiMaeda2 If you enjoyed this thread and learned something, share it with others by retweeting the original tweet:
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