Russian intel driving “new” strategy (take SE) is wrong & won’t result in “win” & strategic goal. There’s a reason why RU hasn’t been able 2 fully take Mariupol/most cities in Donbas after 2 months & it’s the same reason when hey tried & failed 2 take Mariupol in 2014/15 a🧵1/8
Mariupol 2014/15 ordinary LOCAL Russian speaking Ukrainians (workers at plants) organized community patrol groups 2 protect their city! Oligarchs backed & the UKR army (with help of volunteer battalions) defended. But it was ordinary local folks who defended what was “theirs” 2/8
When war began in 2014 median recruit was a local (from south East) male Russian speaker. Majority of volunteers came from SE regions. When we visited Ukrainian controlled Donetsk it was Eerie because all local men of fighting age were absent they volunteered 2 defend Donbas. 3/8
Again, it is NOT a about LANGUAGE or ETHNICITY 4 these people. They see Ukraine as theirs, see these cities as theirs & are well aware that they have not been repressed by mainly Russian speaking presidents. Russian ethnic Donetsk friends now send sms “Ukraine above all” 4/8
Beyond strong sense of belonging + civic duty - what Hale & I call the “Zelenskyy Effect” is most pronounced in South East Ukraine. SE Ukrainians have moved most on NATO EU. You can’t kill an idea. Begs Q why is Russian intelligence not willing to adapt to empirical evidence? 5/8
& if only way 2 “win” a territory when u can’t win its people is 2 encircle it, destroy all of its infrastructure & force all working age pple 2 flee or kill them - what sort of a win is that? Economic benefit of territory is gone. Port access will be offset by more sanctions 6/8
Moreover you can’t sustain a fight of that nature (intense battles of encirclement which result in large casualties on your side) for too long or in too many places. & with a population that is hostile to occupation territories that seemed under control can be easily lost. 7/8
So this is an unwinable strategy. It will not end in any sort of peace or even stalemate but will result in a protracted conflict. When you don’t win over people & continue 2 sustain casualties + face sanctions without economic benefitof territory you only gain more problems 8/8
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