We are now in that phase of the bear-market where everything is likely to decline.
No stock or risk asset (commodities, crypto, high yield bonds) will be spared -- until the Fed pauses or reverses course, only safe haven is likely to be $ cash.
This is a severe tightening.
No stock or risk asset (commodities, crypto, high yield bonds) will be spared -- until the Fed pauses or reverses course, only safe haven is likely to be $ cash.
This is a severe tightening.
Indices likely to decline 15-20% before hitting the low.
$SPX at 15x Forward P/E ---> ~3,300
$NDX at 18x Forward P/E --->~ 10,000
Bond yields + US$ are rallying, this is a headwind for risk assets. Fed will raise FFR by 50bps in the next two FOMC meetings, QT starts in June.
$SPX at 15x Forward P/E ---> ~3,300
$NDX at 18x Forward P/E --->~ 10,000
Bond yields + US$ are rallying, this is a headwind for risk assets. Fed will raise FFR by 50bps in the next two FOMC meetings, QT starts in June.
During the post-bubble contraction, I anticipated the decline in risk assets last autumn and have maintained my view that the indices haven't bottomed yet.
I was early (wrong) about re-investing in growth stocks earlier this year, but my portfolio hedges have reduced drawdown.
I was early (wrong) about re-investing in growth stocks earlier this year, but my portfolio hedges have reduced drawdown.
With the benefit of hindsight, I should've waited longer before re-investing in the smashed growth stocks.
As we've seen, the cheap have become even cheaper + the selling isn't done yet - most closed at new bear-market lows last week.
This business isn't easy, live and learn.
As we've seen, the cheap have become even cheaper + the selling isn't done yet - most closed at new bear-market lows last week.
This business isn't easy, live and learn.
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