Sucks to be down here, and seems quite possible that traditional markets drag #Bitcoin into the mid $20k's before Fed has to reverse "tough on inflation" tightening theatrics.
Some bigger picture charts to consider... h/t @PositiveCrypto
Some bigger picture charts to consider... h/t @PositiveCrypto
Sharpe Ratio showing clear cyclicality pattern from past halving cycles.
Feels crappy now, but human nature doesn't change, and Bitcoin halvings don't stop coming. Note that bi-modal top in 2021 will cause W-shape bottom for Sharpe ratio this year (like in 2015)
Feels crappy now, but human nature doesn't change, and Bitcoin halvings don't stop coming. Note that bi-modal top in 2021 will cause W-shape bottom for Sharpe ratio this year (like in 2015)
Hodler behavior suggests we're already most of the way through a bear market. Peak new entrants was 13 months ago - bandwagoners who can be shaken out have been, remainder now hardened hodlers.
Where else on the chart looks like where we are right now? h/t @PositiveCrypto
Where else on the chart looks like where we are right now? h/t @PositiveCrypto
S2F gets a lot of flak, largely because of the specificity of the 100k call. IMO, it should be viewed as a directional concept - maybe equilibrium for this halving era is more like $50k, not $100k. so be it!
Yellow dotted line here is worth pondering
Yellow dotted line here is worth pondering
Maybe institutional players are smoothing out Bitcoin's ascent by accounting for time-to-next-halving in their valuations of Bitcoin.
In which case, fine. Would mean price action transitioning to something like the pink line here. h/t @TimmerFidelity
In which case, fine. Would mean price action transitioning to something like the pink line here. h/t @TimmerFidelity
Remember, this is an mid-term election year. Fed talking tough now may be just so they can walk it back a month or two before November. h/t @Callum_Thomas
And if you're wondering whether that kind of motive & bias could really exist at the Fed... the numbers certainly suggest so
Federal Reserve employee donations to political candidates 1990 to 2020, from @OpenSecretsDC
Federal Reserve employee donations to political candidates 1990 to 2020, from @OpenSecretsDC
Finally, worth noting that in March 2020 scramble for liquidity, Bitcoin bottomed ~2 weeks before S&P.
By the time the stock market bottomed, Bitcoin had already rallied +68% off its low. h/t @DylanLeClair_
Enjoy stacking this summer, just don't wait too long to do it
By the time the stock market bottomed, Bitcoin had already rallied +68% off its low. h/t @DylanLeClair_
Enjoy stacking this summer, just don't wait too long to do it
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