Economy
Technology
Economics
Finance
Market Analysis
Economic Recession
Bond Market
Copper
Equity Markets
Job layoffs
House price falls
Demand destruction
Credit markets
Oil supply issues
Higher yields
Lower equities
Lower stocks
Macro Views:
As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is everywhere due to the largest monetary tightening in history. 1/
As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is everywhere due to the largest monetary tightening in history. 1/
The equity markets, as I have pointed out in recent tweets, have priced this already. The credit markets are beginning to price this and copper is doing its job. Its the YoY rate of change of these assets you need to look at.
The bond market and oil are the two assets not pricing in future recession yet (due to the supply issues in energy). Bonds finally decided to join the party and the trend of higher yields , lower equities has probably ended. Lower stocks now equal lower yields....
The final show to add to this will be oil. I think it breaks lower...
Bond yields falling and oil falling will give the excuse to the Fed to hike in May and then pause (or do one more in June). The bond markets will begin to price it out.
Bond yields falling and oil falling will give the excuse to the Fed to hike in May and then pause (or do one more in June). The bond markets will begin to price it out.
However, the next 4 weeks are going to be highly unsettling as every position gets taken out and shot (something Ive been warning about). There will be no safe place to hide (except bonds - but most people are short those). Liquidation write large.
Crypto is in full panic mode. All the monkeys are flinging poo at each other (or at me!) on Twitter and that is a sign of approaching the lows. March 2020 was very similar in levels of fear, anger, vitriol, shock and panic. June 2021 was less.
But, as I have pointed out time and time again, crypto is a long-term investment for me, not a trade. In the thesis is clear expectations of 60% corrections (which I have discussed at length). Without that kind of volatility you don't get the exponential upside...
If you zoom out from the FUD you get BTC (as a proxy for the space over all) heading back to its long term Exponential Moving Average. Tough times like these are the times to buy, if you have any spare cash (not easy these days).
And sentiment is so bad that just by writing this tweet of my thoughts in order to help people, my comments section will be full of personal attacks, vitriol and anger. Im sorry you feel that way. Bear markets and recessions are hard and are scary but they give HUGE opportunities
Keep Calm and Carry On.
Stick to your framework.
Relentlessly test your hypothesis and keep an open mind.
Filter out the noise and focus. Opportunity comes out of crisis.
Im looking to add to ETH and getting wildly bullish bonds and am averaging in to high-beta growth.
Stick to your framework.
Relentlessly test your hypothesis and keep an open mind.
Filter out the noise and focus. Opportunity comes out of crisis.
Im looking to add to ETH and getting wildly bullish bonds and am averaging in to high-beta growth.
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