Dead Cat Bounce or The Bottom? 🐈
This one is bit curiouser
Average correction from top is around 25 to 35% range, N100 has already completed 30% draw down and broken imp lows last made in Dec'20 and Mar'21
If it has to reverse it should do it now, otherwise, correction can be as deep as 50%
Average correction from top is around 25 to 35% range, N100 has already completed 30% draw down and broken imp lows last made in Dec'20 and Mar'21
If it has to reverse it should do it now, otherwise, correction can be as deep as 50%
Much less correction in DJI since it has a lot of 'value' and 'old economy' firms that have seen their stock prices rally in last six months
The max DJI can go down in short term now is around 9% from its yesterday's close
29100 is a very significant level for DJI
The max DJI can go down in short term now is around 9% from its yesterday's close
29100 is a very significant level for DJI
Nifty seems to be mirroring DJI in its drawdown percentages
which makes sense as like DJI, Nifty also has a large weightage of oil and gas companies that have been resilient since start of this year
There is a strong chance we will reverse from here (as DJI did on Friday)
which makes sense as like DJI, Nifty also has a large weightage of oil and gas companies that have been resilient since start of this year
There is a strong chance we will reverse from here (as DJI did on Friday)
Nifty vs DJI YTD
Reliance being the largest weightage to the index is helping keep it up when other two pillars of support (Banking and IT have thrown in the towel)
Time for sector specific charts, starting with Nifty 100
15.31% drawdown from the top and at key support
Time to reverse is now, otherwise we go down to 14300
15.31% drawdown from the top and at key support
Time to reverse is now, otherwise we go down to 14300
Same story as above with Nifty 200 and Nifty 500
Nifty Auto
Consolidating for 18 months and counting
Drawdown hasn't been as deep as other sectors
Unless something seriously goes wrong with the industry, I don't foresee deep corrections here
Consolidating for 18 months and counting
Drawdown hasn't been as deep as other sectors
Unless something seriously goes wrong with the industry, I don't foresee deep corrections here
All the talk of the 'Commodity Supercycle' & the index is actually in consolidation mode since last 12 months
The behavior + drawdowns have been similar to the Auto Index
Despite behavior and drawdowns being similar
Auto index isnt loved while commodities are on a 'supercycle'
The behavior + drawdowns have been similar to the Auto Index
Despite behavior and drawdowns being similar
Auto index isnt loved while commodities are on a 'supercycle'
Consumption used to be a 'safe sector' that folks used to run towards in bear markets
Here the consumption index has similar drawdown as the headline index
Valuation of consumer firms may no longer provide the 'safety' to an investor in bear markets (at least not in this one)
Here the consumption index has similar drawdown as the headline index
Valuation of consumer firms may no longer provide the 'safety' to an investor in bear markets (at least not in this one)
Energy Sector
This seems to be on a one way trajectory throughout last 2 years and didn't lose momentum even through the first few months of the year
Has face a steep 15% decline (similar to commodity index) from 22nd Apr
Will it reverse or break the 2 yr trendline?
This seems to be on a one way trajectory throughout last 2 years and didn't lose momentum even through the first few months of the year
Has face a steep 15% decline (similar to commodity index) from 22nd Apr
Will it reverse or break the 2 yr trendline?
Nifty Financial Services
Hasn't gone anywhere since Dec 2019 + a steep 22% drawdown from top, much higher compared to the sectors discussed above
Hasn't gone anywhere since Dec 2019 + a steep 22% drawdown from top, much higher compared to the sectors discussed above
Nifty FMCG
Long consolidation since Dec 2020
Not much to see here
Resilient index during Drawdowns
Long consolidation since Dec 2020
Not much to see here
Resilient index during Drawdowns
Nifty Infra
Kinda funny that Infra (one of the most hated sectors on the street, has done as good as FMCG sector in last year)
Kinda funny that Infra (one of the most hated sectors on the street, has done as good as FMCG sector in last year)
Nifty IT
One of the worst hit sectors in the recent correction with a big gap down on the Weekly (rare occurrence)
Either it has to reverse from 28600 & try breaking the low of 34200 before it gap down'd
or we go down to 25200
One of the worst hit sectors in the recent correction with a big gap down on the Weekly (rare occurrence)
Either it has to reverse from 28600 & try breaking the low of 34200 before it gap down'd
or we go down to 25200
Nifty Media
This sector hasn't gone anywhere since the last 5 years (Jan 2018 last high)
Similar deep 20% drawdown in recent fall, the sector doesn't seem as resilient as Infra, FMCG, Energy etc
This sector hasn't gone anywhere since the last 5 years (Jan 2018 last high)
Similar deep 20% drawdown in recent fall, the sector doesn't seem as resilient as Infra, FMCG, Energy etc
Nifty Metal
Similar to commodities, deep accelerated drawdowns since mid April 2022
Similar to commodities, deep accelerated drawdowns since mid April 2022
Nifty Pharma
One of the most chased sectors in last 2 years, the index recently rejected its previous ATH level of 14000 on the index
Has to decisively cross 14000 for the index and underlying companies to gain momentum
One of the most chased sectors in last 2 years, the index recently rejected its previous ATH level of 14000 on the index
Has to decisively cross 14000 for the index and underlying companies to gain momentum
Nifty PSU Banks
Lot of renowned investors were bullish on this theme
The sector is in Long Term decline starting Nov 2010 (12 yrs and counting)
The declining trendline has stayed intact throughout
Dont even look at the sector unless we break & stay above the trendline
Lot of renowned investors were bullish on this theme
The sector is in Long Term decline starting Nov 2010 (12 yrs and counting)
The declining trendline has stayed intact throughout
Dont even look at the sector unless we break & stay above the trendline
Nifty Realty
One of the worst performing sectors with a 30%+ Drawdown since last high
Previous high was made in Jan 2018, which the index took out last year
If we break and stay below 365 on the index, it maybe time to revisit investments made in this sector
One of the worst performing sectors with a 30%+ Drawdown since last high
Previous high was made in Jan 2018, which the index took out last year
If we break and stay below 365 on the index, it maybe time to revisit investments made in this sector
Nifty Mid Cap
Lot of obituaries have started for the Mid Cap index, which in my opinion has been pretty resilient
Either we reverse from here or expect another 20% correction here, similar movement like the main index
Lot of obituaries have started for the Mid Cap index, which in my opinion has been pretty resilient
Either we reverse from here or expect another 20% correction here, similar movement like the main index
Nifty Small Cap
This one is a bit more worrying esp. since it has declined higher in last week + broken its previous ATH made in Jan 2018 (5 years ago)
Be very stock specific in this one or avoid it completely if possible
This one is a bit more worrying esp. since it has declined higher in last week + broken its previous ATH made in Jan 2018 (5 years ago)
Be very stock specific in this one or avoid it completely if possible
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