A THREAD ๐งต on the long term outlook of the #crypto market and $btc.
No bias, no hopium just plain realistic facts based on objective research.
Read on and leave your bias behind. I want everyone to win.
$azero $vet $qnt $vra $zil $lrc $luna $pyr $trias $tlm $quartz $mlt
No bias, no hopium just plain realistic facts based on objective research.
Read on and leave your bias behind. I want everyone to win.
$azero $vet $qnt $vra $zil $lrc $luna $pyr $trias $tlm $quartz $mlt
1) The whole market has witnessed a global sellof since early November 2021.
While there are a lot of divided opinions on the state of the market we are in (bull or bear), we can all agree it's the first time in this last bull run we've seen such a correction.
While there are a lot of divided opinions on the state of the market we are in (bull or bear), we can all agree it's the first time in this last bull run we've seen such a correction.
2) Looking at today's chart it's incredibly hard to form a bullish opinion when you look at it from an objective perspective.
We made 2 rejections (double top), we broke support and made a lower low.
Even looking at a clean chart it's not rocket science we lost momentum.
We made 2 rejections (double top), we broke support and made a lower low.
Even looking at a clean chart it's not rocket science we lost momentum.
3) That being said any chart analysis out there can be totally drawn in favor of your perspective (just like mine).
I've seen a lot of bullish charts on crypto Twitter as well (as do you probably). Some of them with very good arguments and drawings.
I've seen a lot of bullish charts on crypto Twitter as well (as do you probably). Some of them with very good arguments and drawings.
4) I could have easily drawn lines, support, channels that supports a bullish narrative.
Point is that any technical analysis is highly subjective so we are going to move on to FACTS and macro economics which is UNBIASED by nature.
Point is that any technical analysis is highly subjective so we are going to move on to FACTS and macro economics which is UNBIASED by nature.
5) Since the entire history of the #crypto market we have NEVER (not once) had a bull market that lasted longer than 2 years. Nor having a bear market.
This is based on the simple law of supply and demand that's build in into the tokenomics of $btc.
This is based on the simple law of supply and demand that's build in into the tokenomics of $btc.
6) #Bitcoin has always moved within a 4 year cycle because of its "halving" design.
Each 4 years the mining difficulty goes up and the rewards get cut in halve (6.25 each 10 minutes today).
Each 4 years bitcoin becomes more "scarce" by nature.
Minted supply down = price up.
Each 4 years the mining difficulty goes up and the rewards get cut in halve (6.25 each 10 minutes today).
Each 4 years bitcoin becomes more "scarce" by nature.
Minted supply down = price up.
7) The accuracy of this so far has been insane.
The timeline below was not based upon when each bull and bear market began. It was purely based on highlighting the start of every 2 years.
By coincidence (or is it?) it kickstarted every bull and bear market ever before.
The timeline below was not based upon when each bull and bear market began. It was purely based on highlighting the start of every 2 years.
By coincidence (or is it?) it kickstarted every bull and bear market ever before.
8) Does history always repeat itself? No it doesn't but from a statistical unbiased approach betting on a whole new bull run today has the odds against you.
But because there's always a slight possibility this time is different we will add other arguments in favor or against.
But because there's always a slight possibility this time is different we will add other arguments in favor or against.
9) Today's macro economic outlook is totally different than ever before.
The outcome? It's also against a prolonged bull run...
To combat the huge inflation the feds have started raising interest rates heavily AND only just started.
The outcome? It's also against a prolonged bull run...
To combat the huge inflation the feds have started raising interest rates heavily AND only just started.
10) They are expected to raise interest rates a total of 7 times (Goldman Sachs).
A lot of prominent figures are raising their REAL voices and concerns on this. Even known "crypto figures" heavily in favor or benefiting from a continuation in today's markets.
A lot of prominent figures are raising their REAL voices and concerns on this. Even known "crypto figures" heavily in favor or benefiting from a continuation in today's markets.
11) Then why are so many people screaming the bull run is still on?
Always remember everyone has their own agenda.
-Bearish tweets by big influencers get little to no engagement (even hate)
-You are the exit liquidity (they benefit from you buying)
Always remember everyone has their own agenda.
-Bearish tweets by big influencers get little to no engagement (even hate)
-You are the exit liquidity (they benefit from you buying)
12)
- Hopium (we see what we want to see)
- Firms like "micro strategy" voicing their real concerns works against them (raising more fear and risk of own positions even more under water).
- Hopium (we see what we want to see)
- Firms like "micro strategy" voicing their real concerns works against them (raising more fear and risk of own positions even more under water).
13) Other "prominent figures" are taking a more honest approach.
@bobbyong co-founder of @coingecko is aware of the macro economic situation and even told his own entire team the next 12-18 months are going to be challenging.
@bobbyong co-founder of @coingecko is aware of the macro economic situation and even told his own entire team the next 12-18 months are going to be challenging.
14) These figures have no direct benefit at all for a bear market today (their businesses thrive during bull).
They are even raising concerns of the "sustainability" worst case scenario but they will try to stay above water without layoffs on the team.
They are even raising concerns of the "sustainability" worst case scenario but they will try to stay above water without layoffs on the team.
15) Before I get any hate or replies for my agenda on this:
I would love nothing more then a prolonged bull market as I would immensely benefit from this.
Just like anyone else I hate to be in a bear market BUT I'm not ignoring facts and ignoring the macro outlook bec of hopium
I would love nothing more then a prolonged bull market as I would immensely benefit from this.
Just like anyone else I hate to be in a bear market BUT I'm not ignoring facts and ignoring the macro outlook bec of hopium
16) I am also infinitely bullish on the giga trend of the #crypto market and am 100% convinced we will get through this. I'm just not bullish on 2022.
This is something that has happened before and right now happens again and I accept it.
This is something that has happened before and right now happens again and I accept it.
17) Both technicals, historical accuracy and macro outlook all points in the same direction.
We are not out of the clear just yet. No matter what any influencer tells you.
Does that mean we will continue to go down from here and only drop without any bounce?
We are not out of the clear just yet. No matter what any influencer tells you.
Does that mean we will continue to go down from here and only drop without any bounce?
18) Just like we have small corrections in a bull market we will also have corrections in a bear market.
The only difference is they happen to the upside (lower highs).
The only difference is they happen to the upside (lower highs).
19) I'm even expecting a small bullish correction soon as we have seen to much single sided sell activity in the market.
Usually we still move in waves (lower lows and lower highs).
Plenty of times the market will still move up although significantly less than in a bull market.
Usually we still move in waves (lower lows and lower highs).
Plenty of times the market will still move up although significantly less than in a bull market.
20) How are you going to deal with this information?
If you are overexposed it might not be bad to offload some capital at the next bounce.
Everyone's is talking about holding but there's not a lot of gains when your assets drop 95% and rise 2000% after (break even).
If you are overexposed it might not be bad to offload some capital at the next bounce.
Everyone's is talking about holding but there's not a lot of gains when your assets drop 95% and rise 2000% after (break even).
21) You want to build your stablecoin reserve up as much as possible in a bearish environment.
Timing the bottom will be near impossible (even for professional analysts).
Accumulate BLUE CHIPS at certain FIXED times (1st day of the month for example).
Timing the bottom will be near impossible (even for professional analysts).
Accumulate BLUE CHIPS at certain FIXED times (1st day of the month for example).
22) Majority of all altcoins will completely die out and never bounce back.
That memecoin you are holding that's already down 80%? Don't think for a second it can't drop another 99% and oh it will.
Sell it and trade it for your blue chip. They at least will rebound completely.
That memecoin you are holding that's already down 80%? Don't think for a second it can't drop another 99% and oh it will.
Sell it and trade it for your blue chip. They at least will rebound completely.
23) Learn fundamentals and technical analysis.
Bear markets can be your friend. No one prepares when everything is going well. The real knowledge is build during the difficult times.
2018-2019 has been my edge in my entire trading career.
Bear markets can be your friend. No one prepares when everything is going well. The real knowledge is build during the difficult times.
2018-2019 has been my edge in my entire trading career.
24) DO NOT GIVE UP.
Don't be the person that quits and returns when the bull market is there.
You will be to late and completely unprepared and miss most of the gains made at the start.
Be different. Be the 1%.
Don't be the person that quits and returns when the bull market is there.
You will be to late and completely unprepared and miss most of the gains made at the start.
Be different. Be the 1%.
If you liked this thread and had value from it, It would really bring a smile to my face if you could retweet the first post ๐
Love you all โค๏ธ
Love you all โค๏ธ
Loading suggestions...