So let me be a Kissinger oracle here for a second, since I've read a lot about Kissinger, I dare say more than many people on Twitter. The correct historical reference for interpreting his commentary is the October 1973 Yom Kippur War.
If you recall, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel, and it seemed like they would even win - at least for a few days. Then the tides turned, and Israel pushed back and crossed the Suez Canal. Within days, the Egyptians were surrounded and on the verge of collapse.
Kissinger's tactic was to allow Israel to defeat Egypt but not too much. Overdoing it risked all kinds of problems, including the possibility of a Soviet intervention and further troubles for the oil market (the Arabs imposed an oil embargo).
Leaving the Egyptians hanging in there opened up possibilities for US mediation, which Kissinger took advantage of, winning Sadat's confidence and plying him away from Moscow. The result: the Israelis got something, Egypt got something. Moscow got screwed.
So what he is talking about here is striking a balance between a punishing blow against Russia and a regional escalation, and he is implying that the US (as the key donor to Ukraine) can achieve this balance through careful policy. Is this the case? I don't know.
He is implying, too, that should fighting continue for many more months, several things will happen: 1) a Ukraine fatigue will set in in the West (it's already happening); and 2) relatedly, an economic crisis will lead to political upheaval, which might benefit Russia.
The parallel here is to the 1970s, and the economic crisis precipitated by the oil embargo.
BTW if you read Trenin's article the other day (which I justifiably criticised), it is Trenin's hope that the West would just turn in onto itself in a few months, leaving Russia to claw its way to something or rather in Ukraine. Trenin may be wrong, but Kissinger is worried.
If you follow what Kissinger has recently been saying, you'll see that he is not averse to playing Russia against China in the long term, and so he is keen not to overkill Russia. Is he wrong? Maybe. But it's an interesting argument to have.
All of this is so much more interesting than shouting on Twitter. For a great book on Kissinger's approach to the Middle East, see @Martin_Indyk's Master of the Game. Also, stay tuned for my book - lots of Kissinger there.
Also, anyone who trashes Kissinger on my timeline gets automatically blocked.
Just kidding. I never block anyone - fire away.
Just kidding. I never block anyone - fire away.
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