1) I just returned from the Bay Area.
There is a palpable sense of gloom, a fear that the good times are not only over but never to return.
🧵
There is a palpable sense of gloom, a fear that the good times are not only over but never to return.
🧵
2) What surprised me was the extent to which the conversation veered into the macro realm.
This wasn’t my prior experience, when everyone focused on the virtues of their startups or high-flying stocks.
That, in and of itself, is a sign.
This wasn’t my prior experience, when everyone focused on the virtues of their startups or high-flying stocks.
That, in and of itself, is a sign.
3) Every VC and tech investor has turned into a macro expert.
Rather than accept responsibility for their performance, some are deflecting blame to external factors like the Fed or inflation.
Others still professed love for their SaaS stocks.
Rather than accept responsibility for their performance, some are deflecting blame to external factors like the Fed or inflation.
Others still professed love for their SaaS stocks.
4) Comments like “we are already in a recession” and “there is no end in sight” leave me frazzled.
VCs are projecting their own experience (max pain in their portfolios) onto rest of America.
Because they are suffering, everyone must be suffering. That is simply not true.
VCs are projecting their own experience (max pain in their portfolios) onto rest of America.
Because they are suffering, everyone must be suffering. That is simply not true.
5) I see a localized downturn in Silicon Valley. Much like the Texas shale bust in 2015/16.
San Francisco will see layoffs, falling salaries, worthless stock options, declining housing prices, and despair that lasts up to five years.
Rest of America keeps booming.
San Francisco will see layoffs, falling salaries, worthless stock options, declining housing prices, and despair that lasts up to five years.
Rest of America keeps booming.
6) Households are wealthy, flush with cash, and ready to spend.
Recession risks are minimal. Could it be that VCs are overly pessimistic?
No one believed in the sustainability of any rally.
Recession risks are minimal. Could it be that VCs are overly pessimistic?
No one believed in the sustainability of any rally.
7) I decided to gather the brightest minds to find a glimmer of hope.
You can read notes from our dinner (members-only). 👇stray-reflections.com
You can read notes from our dinner (members-only). 👇stray-reflections.com
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