Unlock Alpha: $ALICE
So this old BSC metaverse/gaming token has a nasty unlock tomorrow of ~3.7mm tokens or 12% of its circulating supply. A short thread on why this unlock may be the worst one yet ๐งต
So this old BSC metaverse/gaming token has a nasty unlock tomorrow of ~3.7mm tokens or 12% of its circulating supply. A short thread on why this unlock may be the worst one yet ๐งต
1 - private sale investors are 57% of the unlock, and are up 27x on their investment. Given its dumpoor szn, will the VC funds involved choose to hang on to these tokens?
2 - $ALICE has typically not performed well during prior major private sale unlocks, as can be seen below (returns measured as 14 days before to 14 days after)
*6/15/21: -42%
*9/12/21: -48%
*12/11/21: -22%
*3/11/22: +1%
*6/15/21: -42%
*9/12/21: -48%
*12/11/21: -22%
*3/11/22: +1%
3 - $10mm worth of tokens will be unlocked tomorrow. This is both material from a % of circulating market cap perspective (12%) but also represents ~50% of $ALICE real 30D trading volume (per Messari - which adjusts for wash trading). The last low liq unlock was was in June '21
3 (cont'd) - this would suggest that compared to daily trading liquidity of the token, this unlock could add a lot of selling pressure (volume yesterday was just $4.5mm).
4 - Demand for liquid on-chain alts is very low, which I wrote about in my latest whale watching post. Funds are cutting exposure to low liquidity alts, so will $ALICE be spared?
onchainwizard.substack.com
onchainwizard.substack.com
4 (cont'd) - Also the environment now is likely worse than all prior unlocks given the macro backdrop, looming crypto regulations and fed tightening, which boosts potential dumpability here
5 - The public launch of the $ALICE game has been long delayed since I believe the fall of last year. While a public launch is expected in Q2-22, the TG community sounds like they have already lost hope, and any delays here will also disappoint those who remain
6 - if you want to watch for dumping live, here is the address where the ~3.7mm $ALICE tokens will be disbursed from. It looks like based on past unlocks, most of the smaller holders dump immediately. Watch for transfers out to Binance to dump
etherscan.io
etherscan.io
7 - in summary, this looks to be a nasty unlock into a liquidity mismatch with a tough macro backdrop. I don't recommend shorting anything, but wanted to post as research and for people to see what impact has on the price over the coming days.
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