Nominal retail sales fell 0.3% in May (more adjusted for inflation). Sales revised down for April too. Last week got weak news on services through April. BUT consumer spending for Q2 still tracking well above the 2% annual rate that is the norm.
People continue to buy a lot at growing amount at restaurants and bars.
And they're *spending* a lot on motor vehicles--but with the price increases is not buying a lot.
As always, people buying a lot at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores (hopefully mostly book stores).
Where does this leave us? This release is consistent with continued COVID normalization--the part that covers services is rising and the goods part is falling. How the quarter turns out depends on services and, of course, data for June. But so far so decent.
IHS Markit now has a current quarter estimate and they have 2.7% for PCE growth (annualized). Another smart friend has ~3%. Both well below the hopes of a week ago but well above normal.
IHS Markit has Q2 GDP growth at 1.2% as biz and residential investment plummeting.
IHS Markit has Q2 GDP growth at 1.2% as biz and residential investment plummeting.
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