Jason Furman
Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 Tweets Dec 18, 2022
Since @bencasselman tweeted this IHS Markit revised their Q2 tracker down twice (once for business inventories and once for housing starts). It now stands at 0.8% annual growth. While the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now is at 0.0%.
A decent chance headline growth could be negative in Q1.
Also both IHS Markit and GDPNow have inventories subtracting 1.7pp from growth. So final sales is positive in both trackers as consumer spending growth above normal in both.
Like Q1 inventories again a big issue.
BTW, essentially the entire difference between IHS Markit & GDPNow is their net exports forecast: IHS Markit have them contributing +1.3pp while GDPNow has -0.2pp. A lot of variance because only have partial data through April & it's a residual from two error-prone variables.
P.S. Typo in the first tweet: a decent chance growth could be negative in Q2.
(Also a decent chance growth could be negative in Q1. The GDP number was negative but GDI was positive so who knows what the revised data will show years from now.)

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