Some explanations on 2008-2009, a actual ๐งต that we almost never do:
1) Bear Stearns goes bust and Wall St thought things were stable and improving. Later on as Lehman rumors swirled no one (even in the RE departments of other banks) thought it was true. Cognitive dissonance set in about 72 hours before Lehman BK as they physically packed boxes!
2) Analyst to MD agreed "don't invest". This becomes a big issue since Tech recovers first and as soon as policy changed, there was a large bid on real tech companies ($aapl sold *MORE* of a new product called an "iPhone"). Majority who see this tweet are likely using one now.
3) As leverage came out of the system, the *rules and regs changed*. Read that carefully. While rich people tried to buy cheap houses, the "smart poors" used the rules to lock in rent control housing in major cities (people forced to leave). This locked in fixed costs
4) Anyone who maintained their income had a chance to accumulate more assets than ever before on a relative basis, the cities were visibly dead with less people walking around (holed up at home - sound familiar?)
5) After Lehman markets didn't bottom for quite months. We also saw mass consolidation Wachovia, Merill bought by BofA etc. The BIG money was looking at distressed over leveraged assets in anything from their industry to real estate. Distress = another word for discount
6) People think short term so the goal was to "buy" whatever people needed today. In today that would be like buying oil and food stocks. The problem with that strategy is that it doesn't have *real growth*. In the end people eat about the same amount of food every year
7) After all this by the time 2011 came around, the market had another bad year and people made the *SAME* mistake. The markets were weak and people thought collapse was imminent again buying business that remain flat (iphones, software, all went vertical etc.). Missed it again!
Several points:
1) markets don't bottom until all leverage is gone. Lehman (3AC) goes bust, it can take time
2) worry less about price, you won't tag the bottom since you don't have the loan books. Instead ask "what will people use *more* of 2022-2030?" More meaning real growth
1) markets don't bottom until all leverage is gone. Lehman (3AC) goes bust, it can take time
2) worry less about price, you won't tag the bottom since you don't have the loan books. Instead ask "what will people use *more* of 2022-2030?" More meaning real growth
3) clearly, we are biased to crypto 2022-2035. We've ridden down 3 downturns now with $20K to $4K being the roughest (March of 2020) and didn't sell. Most will blink because they didn't have income or they got scared. ***Emotions are not your friends***
4) For proof of this you can see our old stuff, despite how horrible everything is (and likely gets worse till 3AC gets out) basic coins like BTC are still up massive since the low (400% vs. 50% for the S&P)
5) Make no mistake, people will STILL give money to people like 3AC. The reasoning is simple, they don't want to learn they want someone else to "learn it for them". This means the manager is *incentivized* to gamble your money. He goes to zero? Doesn't matter. Think that through
Conclusion Time!
1) Capitulation can't come until 3AC is out
2) Managers are incentivized to gamble your money
3) Learn or Earn, rest is useless for you long-term
4) Stable income and fixed costs will save you
5) "What will people use *more* of 2022-2035?" (can't be food)
1) Capitulation can't come until 3AC is out
2) Managers are incentivized to gamble your money
3) Learn or Earn, rest is useless for you long-term
4) Stable income and fixed costs will save you
5) "What will people use *more* of 2022-2035?" (can't be food)
(for the reply guys)
More means *higher revenue growth or user growth*. While you can own stuff like food stocks for stable income, that's not gaining market share because people eat about the same amount. If you can answer #5 you'll be rich in 10 years.
More means *higher revenue growth or user growth*. While you can own stuff like food stocks for stable income, that's not gaining market share because people eat about the same amount. If you can answer #5 you'll be rich in 10 years.
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