Thread: The Crypto Bulltard’s Guide To Potential Further Contagion
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So… the question on everyone’s minds right now is ‘Will the LUNA/Celsius/3AC stuff keep spreading?’ and... "Where might it spread?"
And that is the subject of this thread.
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🧵
So… the question on everyone’s minds right now is ‘Will the LUNA/Celsius/3AC stuff keep spreading?’ and... "Where might it spread?"
And that is the subject of this thread.
1/x
The title of the thread refers to the fact this is NOT going to be a thread of speculative Schadenfreude. I genuinely feel bad for any/every individual or entity rekt by the current market conditions.
I’m also a true believer in on-chain smart contract-based systems being..
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I’m also a true believer in on-chain smart contract-based systems being..
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... superior financial plumbing and (many years from now) replacing tradf structures.
Instead this thread is primarily me curatooring the best info I have found, to try to avoid exposure and also to better position to buy solid tokens amidst capitulation.
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Instead this thread is primarily me curatooring the best info I have found, to try to avoid exposure and also to better position to buy solid tokens amidst capitulation.
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One: @BlockFi
Blockfi has been the recipient of much speculation this week over its solvency and ability to handle customer withdrawals.
The most widely-retweeted and sober thread on this came from @otteroooo, which can be seen below:
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Blockfi has been the recipient of much speculation this week over its solvency and ability to handle customer withdrawals.
The most widely-retweeted and sober thread on this came from @otteroooo, which can be seen below:
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In their Substack today, @BowTiedBull described utilizing Blockfi right now as “depositing into a bank that’s not profitable” and respectfully suggested pulling funds out immediately.
So too has @Pentosh1, in tweet below:
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So too has @Pentosh1, in tweet below:
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On the other side, here is @BlockFiZac’s official response to such ongoing speculation:
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Two: @investvoyager
Voyager is an interesting situation because they are a publicly-traded company, and as a result, it is true they are held to tighter regulatory and reporting standards.
They discuss that in this thread:
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Voyager is an interesting situation because they are a publicly-traded company, and as a result, it is true they are held to tighter regulatory and reporting standards.
They discuss that in this thread:
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They also stated in another tweet that they have engaged in “No DeFi lending activities, no algorithmic stablecoin staking or lending, no derivative assets, and certainly no stETH.”
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It seems as if by “defi lending” they must just mean on-chain though, and this tweet from @dylanleclair_ speculates on ‘Counterparties’ of theirs, and whether a Singapore-based one might have been 3AC:
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9/
Voyager also catalyzed speculation this week for announcing that they had secured a large loan from Alameda to “better serve and protect our customers”:
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Three: @coinbase
Coinbase is another entity that is getting a lot of attention right now. I haven’t seen any speculation about insolvency/3AC exposure type stuff, but rather they seem to be facing significant issues from a business perspective as a publicly traded company.
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Coinbase is another entity that is getting a lot of attention right now. I haven’t seen any speculation about insolvency/3AC exposure type stuff, but rather they seem to be facing significant issues from a business perspective as a publicly traded company.
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The primary point of discussion in this regard is their recent layoffs:
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In addition, famous shortseller Jim Chanos has been actively shorting Coinbase, and explained his reasons for doing so in this interview:
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Also, @certikalert has flagged what they believe to be on-chain evidence of possible insider trading from a Coinbase employee(?),
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@pythianism also publicly called Coinbase out over token listing issues recently.
[also note, I agree with Vance that Coinbase has a lot of great qualities, and I have a lot of respect for Brian Armstrong just like I do @cz_binance and @jespow):
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[also note, I agree with Vance that Coinbase has a lot of great qualities, and I have a lot of respect for Brian Armstrong just like I do @cz_binance and @jespow):
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Four: $USDD
$USDD is the $UST-reminiscent (and until recently 30% apr) stablecoin on Justin Sun’s Tron chain, which has been depegging this week:
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$USDD is the $UST-reminiscent (and until recently 30% apr) stablecoin on Justin Sun’s Tron chain, which has been depegging this week:
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Many believe it will “death-spiral” like $UST, since they are ostensibly similar, HOWEVER the actual mechanics of the situation are quite a bit different.
Justin Sun and co apparently control virtually all the liquidity for it, there is not really an easy way to short it..
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Justin Sun and co apparently control virtually all the liquidity for it, there is not really an easy way to short it..
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...and only select entities can engage in the mint/burn function.
Below is the best thread I’ve found on $USDD, which breaks down all of the above and much more, and seems to suggest a low likelihood of a $UST-type situation:
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Below is the best thread I’ve found on $USDD, which breaks down all of the above and much more, and seems to suggest a low likelihood of a $UST-type situation:
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And here’s another good one from @resdegen, that is more skeptical about $USDN’s robustness:
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In addition, some are suggesting that by allowing $USDD to perhaps temporarily depeg, Justin Sun is effectively just trolling the market or something similar.
Speaking of Justin Sun, here’s his most recent tweets on the subject:
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Speaking of Justin Sun, here’s his most recent tweets on the subject:
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Also, just as an aside, even the FatManTerra account seems skeptical $USDN could death spiral:
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Five: @Tether_to
$USDT has, of course, been the focus of more speculation than any other entity in crypto, and has been for years.
Its practically a GroundHog Day situation at this point:
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$USDT has, of course, been the focus of more speculation than any other entity in crypto, and has been for years.
Its practically a GroundHog Day situation at this point:
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I am of mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I think alot of the “Tether-truther” stuff is from really low-info, hyperbolic, cringey accounts.
HOWEVER… one argument I find persuasive is in regards to the huge drop in bond values this year:
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HOWEVER… one argument I find persuasive is in regards to the huge drop in bond values this year:
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The best thread I’ve seen in this very fair and sober analysis from @macrocephalopod back in May (who cryptically predicted 3AC’s demise a month before it happened):
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24/x
Thread continues below:
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