Biggest question right now is probably:
Is the bottom in?
Nobody knows, but let’s compare the last bearish phases to the current situation.
Is the bear exhausted, or does he still have fuel left?
A $BTC 🧵
1/28
Is the bottom in?
Nobody knows, but let’s compare the last bearish phases to the current situation.
Is the bear exhausted, or does he still have fuel left?
A $BTC 🧵
1/28
2/ ‘But sir, you can’t compare previous bottoms to this one, because of the Macro environment right now!’
While that may be true, we’re not going to focus on that situation in this thread, but purely have a look at $BTC
No financial advice to be found here, just a comparison
While that may be true, we’re not going to focus on that situation in this thread, but purely have a look at $BTC
No financial advice to be found here, just a comparison
3/ Terra, Celsius, 3AC
Massive firms, run by degenerate clowns, who contributed all in their own way to the sell-offs we saw since the beginning of May.
This caused the market as a whole to go from little to full blown panic mode
Massive firms, run by degenerate clowns, who contributed all in their own way to the sell-offs we saw since the beginning of May.
This caused the market as a whole to go from little to full blown panic mode
4/ While the Luna collapse seemed like an event on its own at first, now we know it wasn’t, as 3AC had a massive position over there too
With the market already feeling heavy at 29K, this was the last straw that broke the camel’s back.
A capitulative move to 17K happened fast
With the market already feeling heavy at 29K, this was the last straw that broke the camel’s back.
A capitulative move to 17K happened fast
5/ Massive hedge/loan funds forcedly capitulating into multi-year lows
All awesome ingredients for a Bear Mkt bottom, one would say
Market was in a state of excessive fear already
All awesome ingredients for a Bear Mkt bottom, one would say
Market was in a state of excessive fear already
6/ In the coming section, I’d like to compare previous Bear Market bottom zones with some metrics, to see if a bottoming ZONE here would make sense.
I’m only going to compare data.
I won’t scream BOTTOM or BUY BLINDLY
It’s for everybody on their own how to interpret the data
I’m only going to compare data.
I won’t scream BOTTOM or BUY BLINDLY
It’s for everybody on their own how to interpret the data
7/ During downtrends & capitulation, losses are realized.
2 weeks ago, during the 29-17K sell-off, there was a record high amount ($) of losses realized.
Of course, when a market grows, the gains and losses as a whole get bigger, but panic selling was here
2 weeks ago, during the 29-17K sell-off, there was a record high amount ($) of losses realized.
Of course, when a market grows, the gains and losses as a whole get bigger, but panic selling was here
8/ More zoomed in, you can see that THE bottom does not always go hand in hand with massive losses.
July ‘21, when $BTC bottomed, was relatively silent, maybe that was bc the market had suffered big time already.
Downtrend since November consists of many massive losses already
July ‘21, when $BTC bottomed, was relatively silent, maybe that was bc the market had suffered big time already.
Downtrend since November consists of many massive losses already
9/ $BTC is now below the ‘realized price’, for the first time since the Covid Crash.
This is like the average price for every coin in the total supply.
Too early to actually call a bottom, but a zone here where $BTC would bottom out, would make sense to me
This is like the average price for every coin in the total supply.
Too early to actually call a bottom, but a zone here where $BTC would bottom out, would make sense to me
10/ MVRV-Z being negative coincided with bottom zones during the last 7 years.
This metric compares the spot value of $BTC vs the realized price.
Either a deep negative, or an extreme positive valuation is like a deviation from the mean, thus maybe a sell- or buyzone.
This metric compares the spot value of $BTC vs the realized price.
Either a deep negative, or an extreme positive valuation is like a deviation from the mean, thus maybe a sell- or buyzone.
11/ Long term Hodlers are seen as the ‘smart investors’.
Normally, they most often only really sell during an uptrend, aka distributing during market strength (late ‘20-March ‘21)
Their supply declined quite a bit recently.
Chart by @glassnode
Normally, they most often only really sell during an uptrend, aka distributing during market strength (late ‘20-March ‘21)
Their supply declined quite a bit recently.
Chart by @glassnode
12/ But that was still only a relatively small decline.
Aren’t we (whoever is left) accumulating?
Don’t ask me how this metric works, but seems like smart money re-accumulates bottoms & dumb retail money apes in during tops.
Tell me sir, is this a top or a bottom?
Aren’t we (whoever is left) accumulating?
Don’t ask me how this metric works, but seems like smart money re-accumulates bottoms & dumb retail money apes in during tops.
Tell me sir, is this a top or a bottom?
13/ So, who is stacking?
Plus, is there enough demand in this zone for $BTC to bottom here? Because it seems like HODLers as a whole are the only ones left.
Small fishes are stacking sats, accelerated
Plus, is there enough demand in this zone for $BTC to bottom here? Because it seems like HODLers as a whole are the only ones left.
Small fishes are stacking sats, accelerated
14/ Bigger boys are a bit more quiet/mixed. But not really decreasing, so that’s a good thing imo.
Plus, the amount of the massivest whales has increased by a lot
Plus, the amount of the massivest whales has increased by a lot
15/ The $BTC price was down 70%+ from the ATH. Around ~75% on most exchanges, to be precise.
70-85% drawdowns from ATH’s marked Bear market bottom zones often
70-85% drawdowns from ATH’s marked Bear market bottom zones often
16/ In fact, if we forget the 90%+ drawdown in 2011, when the market was way smaller and thus way more volatile, $BTC always bottomed, being down 70-85% from the top.
Bottoms of drawdowns seem to be rising too btw
Bottoms of drawdowns seem to be rising too btw
17/ We saw earlier that there were record high losses realized, in $.
Which makes sense, obviously due to a growing market cap.
But if you have a look at the net profit/loss, we just had the 3d biggest loss realization on 1 day, after a build up during the downtrend.
Which makes sense, obviously due to a growing market cap.
But if you have a look at the net profit/loss, we just had the 3d biggest loss realization on 1 day, after a build up during the downtrend.
18/If you look at the ratio between these losses and the Realized Cap (talked earlier), you also see the 3d biggest negative deviation period from the mean
This can only be the start of a bottoming process, prices may plunge way lower, but the magnitude of this bear is massive
This can only be the start of a bottoming process, prices may plunge way lower, but the magnitude of this bear is massive
19/ All of this hits the confidence amongst #Bitcoin HODLers.
Reserve Risk tracks that confidence relative to the current price. It also says that a big bunch is hodling, no matter what.
It is at extreme levels right now, hardly seen in history.
Reserve Risk tracks that confidence relative to the current price. It also says that a big bunch is hodling, no matter what.
It is at extreme levels right now, hardly seen in history.
20/ Let’s talk about levels now.
Or, better, zones. Because nobody knows how low we go, or if a bottom is in.
Being below the 200 W EMA hasn’t occurred often. When we spent time over there, it was a BTFD zone.
Or, better, zones. Because nobody knows how low we go, or if a bottom is in.
Being below the 200 W EMA hasn’t occurred often. When we spent time over there, it was a BTFD zone.
21/ $BTC is also below the 2Y MA
It has bottomed out below this metric every time in history.
Keep in mind that it could be a wide price zone, just like before too.
It has bottomed out below this metric every time in history.
Keep in mind that it could be a wide price zone, just like before too.
22/ The $BTC price is now trading below the 200 W MA, the Realized Price and the 0.6 Mayer Multiple (not covered).
That has only happened 13 days in #Bitcoin’s history. Previous moments are marked in vertical light green and coincided with the pico bottom of the Bear Market.
That has only happened 13 days in #Bitcoin’s history. Previous moments are marked in vertical light green and coincided with the pico bottom of the Bear Market.
23/ All while all of your normie frens are laughing at you again and declaring #Bitcoin dead.
It’s up to you to decide whether they are right.
Is this time actually different?
It’s up to you to decide whether they are right.
Is this time actually different?
24/ Finishing notes 1/5
While many, if not all, metrics hint at a bottom ZONE around these prices for $BTC, it’s important to add that while we didn’t have a look at the macroeconomic outlook, it can’t be denied that this is a real test for these models.
While many, if not all, metrics hint at a bottom ZONE around these prices for $BTC, it’s important to add that while we didn’t have a look at the macroeconomic outlook, it can’t be denied that this is a real test for these models.
25/ However, keep in mind that these models can go even deeper, with $BTC retracing even more. Nothing is guaranteed (duh)
A bottom will take time. If we would bottom in this zone, I expect something like this to happen. Maybe lower prices, maybe not, but a period of ranging PA
A bottom will take time. If we would bottom in this zone, I expect something like this to happen. Maybe lower prices, maybe not, but a period of ranging PA
26/ Macroeconomic view, combined with a clear lack of new, fresh demand for $BTC, is worrisome to me.
While I think these prices right now are at a great discount & I’m investing with a long term horizon, it has never been this uncertain.
While I think these prices right now are at a great discount & I’m investing with a long term horizon, it has never been this uncertain.
27/ Also, $BTC could indeed drop to like 10K, but imho that’s very unlikely.
But I have been wrong before (who hasn’t tho lol) and nothing is guaranteed, so I’m keeping it in mind as a ‘What if’.
But I have been wrong before (who hasn’t tho lol) and nothing is guaranteed, so I’m keeping it in mind as a ‘What if’.
28/ All of this was purely me looking at some data. I hope you’ve found at least a little value in it
It took me almost the whole day, so I would be very pleased to get some RT’s of the first tweet, capped here
Thanks a lot, to a brighter $BTC future :)
It took me almost the whole day, so I would be very pleased to get some RT’s of the first tweet, capped here
Thanks a lot, to a brighter $BTC future :)
Oops wrong picture was attached to tweet 25, should’ve been something like this😅
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