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Population Decline
Demography
Secularization Impact on Fertility Rates
Here are some reasons why we're facing an underpopulation crisis, and some ways to solve it:
1. Conventional wisdom claims it's all about sanitation & money:
• Less child deaths = ppl need fewer kids
• You need more $ per kid for education & childcare
But it's only part of it
1. Conventional wisdom claims it's all about sanitation & money:
• Less child deaths = ppl need fewer kids
• You need more $ per kid for education & childcare
But it's only part of it
2. The first two Western places to reduce their fertility were France and Massachusetts, BEFORE the sanitation & industrial revolutions.
Both went on to have a political revolution a few decades later. These 2 facts are connected.
Both went on to have a political revolution a few decades later. These 2 facts are connected.
In both cases, the cause was likely secularization. In FR, the areas with the most secularization lost the most fertility. The descendants of those living in these areas carried that lower fertility with them.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
It's not the only time the demographic transition can be linked to some cultural event. Something similar happened in the UK, in Greenland, in Quebec...
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
3. France most likely lost its position as the most powerful country in Europe due to its loss of fertility. Less fertility, fewer children, fewer citizens, fewer taxes, fewer soldiers, you lose wars. Germany passed FR in power as it passed it in ppl
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
Look at when Napoleon conquered half of Europe: at France's relative peak in population. Not a coincidence.
4. If secularization—a cultural factor—caused the fertility drop, can culture also increase fertility?
It can.
A single guy caused 50k births in a country, lifting it to replacement levels
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
It can.
A single guy caused 50k births in a country, lifting it to replacement levels
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
This is why it's so important that cultural icons like @elonmusk show the example of having more kids. It makes it OK. Especially from a person so focused on bending climate change.
5. Economics do matter, but it's awfully expensive to produce kids with incentives. With economic incentives from the gov, it costs about 2-3x GDP per capita to create another child. For the US, it's ~$100k/child
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
In the long term, it's viable to do it as a country: a person will create in value more than 2-3x GDP/person over their lifetime. It's still super expensive, and much more efficient to do it with cultural shifts
If you work on cultural products, normalize having more children
If you work on cultural products, normalize having more children
Side note: the #1 concern when I say this is: But what about the planet? I will write about it, but quickly:
1. +ppl is the best way to improve the planet because you want countries to become rich, and pop growth is crucial for that. Econ shrinking=no investment in cleantech
1. +ppl is the best way to improve the planet because you want countries to become rich, and pop growth is crucial for that. Econ shrinking=no investment in cleantech
2. Advanced economies have a decreasing consumption of CO2/capita. We need to keep pushing, not stall
3. Not having kids voluntarily is missing on one of the big sources of happiness. It's a tangible, immediate, existential loss, for a blurry, future, potential upside for the planet (that isn't even true)
4. It's pretty selfish: if your ancestors had thought this way, you wouldn't be here. If you think the loss of a life is a drama, imagine depriving a life to trillions of ppl (our descendants for all the future)
So make babies
So make babies
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