As the world is preoccupied with Hunter Biden's... interesting... pictures.
Chaos in this relatively unheard of nation has the chance to significantly disrupt 80% of global trade and trillions of dollars in oil and trade.
🧵👇
Chaos in this relatively unheard of nation has the chance to significantly disrupt 80% of global trade and trillions of dollars in oil and trade.
🧵👇
The country I'm talking about is Sri Lanka.
Why it matters: An unbelievable amount of global trade flows through the Indian ocean and most of it flows through Sri Lanka.
1/2 of all oil.
Trillions in goods.
(I'm aware the data below is old but it's likely WAY WAY more now.)
Why it matters: An unbelievable amount of global trade flows through the Indian ocean and most of it flows through Sri Lanka.
1/2 of all oil.
Trillions in goods.
(I'm aware the data below is old but it's likely WAY WAY more now.)
This has put the island nation of Sri Lanka with, arguably, the importance of the Straight of Malacca or the Suez Canal.
And yet no one seems to talk about them.
And yet no one seems to talk about them.
For most of Sri Lanka's modern history, no one has wanted anything to do with it as Sri Lanka was fighting a civil war with the Tamil Tigers.
One of the world's many colorful and most deadly terrorist organizations.
One of the world's many colorful and most deadly terrorist organizations.
This resulted in most of the world ignoring the nation because if ships cut their travel time through Sri Lank's waters they caught a bad case of being blown up.
However, the government eventually won the war and global trade steadily sailed through Sri Lanka's waters.
However, the government eventually won the war and global trade steadily sailed through Sri Lanka's waters.
For most of history, Sri Lanka has been a relatively insignificant country.
That's until the Dutch arrived with the Dutch East India company (the largest company in history) after beating defeating the Portuguese with the King.
But they really wanted ONE piece of Sri Lanka.
That's until the Dutch arrived with the Dutch East India company (the largest company in history) after beating defeating the Portuguese with the King.
But they really wanted ONE piece of Sri Lanka.
Wars were fought over this harbor.
That's right my fellow Indian geography nerds.
I'm talking about the one
The only
Trincomalee and its harbor.
That's right my fellow Indian geography nerds.
I'm talking about the one
The only
Trincomalee and its harbor.
According to one British prime minister it was "the most valuable colonial possession on the globe, as giving to our Indian Empire a security which it had not enjoyed from its establishment" and "the finest harbor in the world" to Admiral Nelson ( IYK Napoleonic history YK).
The reason why Trincomalee is so valuable is that it is the world's 3rd largest natural harbor in the world, one of the deepest, and sits at the convergence of some of the world's most important trade routes.
This makes it a perfect place to put a submarine base.
This makes it a perfect place to put a submarine base.
So, congratulations Sri Lanka you now have the interest of 3 suitors.
1. China
2. India
3. America
All of which want a piece of it with Americans trying their hand in the 80s and India sweating over that fact.
1. China
2. India
3. America
All of which want a piece of it with Americans trying their hand in the 80s and India sweating over that fact.
China wants to control the Indian Ocean.
They just straight up want to control it.
So they were very "nice" to Sri Lanka offering it loans as part of its Belt and Road initiative which made the current government very friendly towards Chinese interests.
They just straight up want to control it.
So they were very "nice" to Sri Lanka offering it loans as part of its Belt and Road initiative which made the current government very friendly towards Chinese interests.
India also wants to control the Indian Ocean so they threw money at the country and have been stepping up their presence in the region by building up military bases.
America has been doing the same wants to control the Indian Ocean so they have safe passage in the event they have to move the Pacific fleet to the Middle East or the Indian continent.
But also to ensure global trade is safe and suits America's interests.
Some of the primary functions of America's navy.
Some of the primary functions of America's navy.
Now, I bet you're thinking, "what does this have to do with the chaos and a presidential palace being stormed"?
Well, China is the doing the geopolitical shuffle by getting close with the opposition party.
Well, China is the doing the geopolitical shuffle by getting close with the opposition party.
It's not like the current government (what's left of it) wasn't either.
Sri Lanka is in a real nasty pickle right now and China is appearing to prepare to swoop in to save the fledgling nation.
Sri Lanka is in a real nasty pickle right now and China is appearing to prepare to swoop in to save the fledgling nation.
It's likely that they're going to ask for Trincomalee harbor to build a submarine base.
And it's pretty clear why they would want it:
1. Symbolic value of owning the crown jewel of the British colonial empire as they seek to build their own.
2. A way to ensure energy security and reign in the pirates of the Strait of Malacca.
3. Control the Indian ocean.
1. Symbolic value of owning the crown jewel of the British colonial empire as they seek to build their own.
2. A way to ensure energy security and reign in the pirates of the Strait of Malacca.
3. Control the Indian ocean.
Possible affects of this control could be disastrous for global trade as the Chinese could pretty much destroy or hold any trade hostage in the Indian ocean.
This is unlikely but possible and could significantly affect the global economy.
This is unlikely but possible and could significantly affect the global economy.
A more likely scenario is that China could use this control to coerce states and companies into doing what they want.
In this case, a return to domestic production is likely to occur.
In this case, a return to domestic production is likely to occur.
The bottom line: Sri Lanka is one of the most valuable nations in the world and their crisis right now has the potential to affect global trade if China seeks to further their control over the Indian Ocean.
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