The 12-month core CPI fell from 6.0% in the year through May to 5.9% in the year through June. But don't get too excited--this is probably not telling you what you think it is.
All it says is that core inflation in the month of June-22 was slightly lower than it was in June-21.
All it says is that core inflation in the month of June-22 was slightly lower than it was in June-21.
Specifically the 12-month change in core CPI is the sum of the 12 monthly changes.
So the June 12 month change differs from the May 12 month change in adding June-22 (+0.6%) and dropping June-21 (+0.7%). The other 11 monthly changes were unchanged.
So the June 12 month change differs from the May 12 month change in adding June-22 (+0.6%) and dropping June-21 (+0.7%). The other 11 monthly changes were unchanged.
It is more relevant to look at one month changes or, if you're worried about noise, three month changes. In June core CPI increased at a nearly 9% annual rate. Over the last three months it was about an 8% annual rate. Those are both up.
That means that IF every month going forward looked like June then core inflation would eventually rise from its 5.9% 12-month change to something like an 8% or 9% change.
Now I don't expect that to happen for many reasons, but the new info in June was net worse not net better.
Now I don't expect that to happen for many reasons, but the new info in June was net worse not net better.
P.S. We're likely going to see 12-month changes, at least for core, rising over the next few months as the low readings for July, Aug and Sept 2021 drop out of the data. I'll be around then still focusing on the 1 or 3 month changes not the change in the 12 month change.
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