Whoa. CME-estimated market odds of a 100bp hike at the next meeting have risen from 0.0% a week ago to 42.8% now.
I would still recommend sticking to 75bp (although 100bp would be fine too).
cmegroup.com
I would still recommend sticking to 75bp (although 100bp would be fine too).
cmegroup.com
The reason is that we know more than just the CPI data. A lot of data shows a slowing economy, the wage numbers were very reassuring, and a lot of monetary contraction is still working through the system.
They should also be *very* flexible in their forward guidance with everything on the table for their September meeting, including 0bp or 100bp.
And further shift towards 100bp.
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