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Last month economists Marijn A. Bolhuis Judd N. L. Cramer Lawrence H. Summers released a NBER working paper where they reversed engineered CPI back to 1949 using today's methodology.
nber.org
Last month economists Marijn A. Bolhuis Judd N. L. Cramer Lawrence H. Summers released a NBER working paper where they reversed engineered CPI back to 1949 using today's methodology.
nber.org
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What this shows is inflation right now is HIGHER than 1974 (gas lines via the Arab Oil Embargo) and only 1979 to 1981 was higher. And not that much higher.
This measure shows it is as bad as the 1970s.
What this shows is inflation right now is HIGHER than 1974 (gas lines via the Arab Oil Embargo) and only 1979 to 1981 was higher. And not that much higher.
This measure shows it is as bad as the 1970s.
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This chart compares today's methodology (orange) to what was reported at the time (headline CPI, blue). The bottom panel shows the difference.
So today is worse than 1949 and 1974. Again, over the last 70 years, only 1979 to 1981 was more ... and not by that much.
This chart compares today's methodology (orange) to what was reported at the time (headline CPI, blue). The bottom panel shows the difference.
So today is worse than 1949 and 1974. Again, over the last 70 years, only 1979 to 1981 was more ... and not by that much.
Bonus #1
Why do you think the market is pricing a 100-bps hike at more than 50%? ...
"What we understand is how little we understand about inflation" -- Jay Powell
Why do you think the market is pricing a 100-bps hike at more than 50%? ...
"What we understand is how little we understand about inflation" -- Jay Powell
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