Blink & you will miss the big news of the week: despite higher commodity costs, China imports grew by a staggering low of 1%YoY in June. Btw, it grew 4.1% in May and -0.1% in April and .1% in March. This is nominal imports. Exports are double digits so domestic demand even worse.
Chinese imports are commodity intensive & so import price alone should push it higher on a %YoY basis because prices rose between June 22 vs June 21.
If nominal imports are not growing, volume must be rather low. Btw, some imports are used for exports & if exports growing then..
If nominal imports are not growing, volume must be rather low. Btw, some imports are used for exports & if exports growing then..
The weak import figures actually is likely worse for domestic demand as some used for exporting of goods and some for domestic consumption.
Either way, this is the true story.
Also, news flow on Chinese property not good as people now refusing on paying mortgages...
Impact?
Either way, this is the true story.
Also, news flow on Chinese property not good as people now refusing on paying mortgages...
Impact?
Import volumes for commodities (first half demand 2022).
Coal, lower MoM, -17.5% ytd
Crude oil, lower, -3.1% ytd
Iron ore, lower, -4.4% ytd
Natural gas, lower, -10%
Steel products, lower, -5.4%
Only copper is up +8.6% (btw, copper prices are down).
Real demand down in China.
Coal, lower MoM, -17.5% ytd
Crude oil, lower, -3.1% ytd
Iron ore, lower, -4.4% ytd
Natural gas, lower, -10%
Steel products, lower, -5.4%
Only copper is up +8.6% (btw, copper prices are down).
Real demand down in China.
Btw, import values are up!!!
Coal +65.4% ytd (so volume lower but prices higher)
Crude +54%
Iron ore -30% (volume + price lower)
Steel products 1.5%
Copper 17.1%
Natural gas +51.4%
So? If import prices HIGHER even w/ lower volume then MANUFACTURED IMPORTS MUCH BE REALLY LOW.
Coal +65.4% ytd (so volume lower but prices higher)
Crude +54%
Iron ore -30% (volume + price lower)
Steel products 1.5%
Copper 17.1%
Natural gas +51.4%
So? If import prices HIGHER even w/ lower volume then MANUFACTURED IMPORTS MUCH BE REALLY LOW.
China imports by country (by value), %YoY & %Ytd, ready?
USA +1.7% (June), +3.6% (First half or Jan to June)
Russia +56.3%, 48.2%
ASEAN 5.3%, 5.3%
EU -9.7, -7.6%
Japan -14.2%, -7.3%
Korea -7.2%, 3.3%
Taiwan -6%, 7.3%
India -27.2%, -35.3%
Brazil -7%, 2.2%
Australia -15%, -12.3%
USA +1.7% (June), +3.6% (First half or Jan to June)
Russia +56.3%, 48.2%
ASEAN 5.3%, 5.3%
EU -9.7, -7.6%
Japan -14.2%, -7.3%
Korea -7.2%, 3.3%
Taiwan -6%, 7.3%
India -27.2%, -35.3%
Brazil -7%, 2.2%
Australia -15%, -12.3%
China imports from the EU by country, June, %ytd (%YoY):
United Kingdom -24.2%, -9.5%
Germany -15.4%, -7.2%
France -15.4%, -11%
Italy -10.8%, 13.2%
Netherlands -18.8%, -11.2%
What do you see? Chinese imports of manufactured goods WEAK.
Manufactured exporters suffering.
United Kingdom -24.2%, -9.5%
Germany -15.4%, -7.2%
France -15.4%, -11%
Italy -10.8%, 13.2%
Netherlands -18.8%, -11.2%
What do you see? Chinese imports of manufactured goods WEAK.
Manufactured exporters suffering.
In fact, even Australia and Brazil exports weak to China.
Why? Well, Australia's key exports are iron ore, a key input to Chinese domestic demand or domestic construction of infrastructure, real estate, etc.
What's does that tell you about Chinese demand in first half 2022?
Why? Well, Australia's key exports are iron ore, a key input to Chinese domestic demand or domestic construction of infrastructure, real estate, etc.
What's does that tell you about Chinese demand in first half 2022?
What will happen in the second half of 2022???
Either way, the staggering low import figure of 1%YoY in June is in sharp contrast to the rest of the region. Let's look.
India in May +62.8%YoY import bill, higher from 31% in April.
Indonesia 30.7%YoY in May
Korea +21.1% June
Either way, the staggering low import figure of 1%YoY in June is in sharp contrast to the rest of the region. Let's look.
India in May +62.8%YoY import bill, higher from 31% in April.
Indonesia 30.7%YoY in May
Korea +21.1% June
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