Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

5 Tweets Jan 07, 2023
1/5
Why do so many journalists keep saying this?
"China is still seemingly better positioned to mount its recovery, helped by its low inflation rate compared to the United States and Europe."
sc.mp via @scmpnews
2/5
This is total nonsense. While high inflation is indeed a constraint in the US and Europe, where the problem consist of some combination of excess demand and supply disruptions, it is incredibly lazy simply to assume that China must have the same problem.
3/5
In fact China has the opposite problem: in the face of weak and declining demand, Beijing can only respond with supply-side subsidies that boost production further. China's low inflation, in other words, is a symptom of its domestic imbalance.
4/5
Put another way, if Chinese stimulus measures were more effective, inflation would rise, not fall. As it is, once you strip out external inflation China is actually experiencing disinflation, and perhaps even deflation.
5/5
The structure of the Chinese economy could not be more different from that of the US and Europe. Analysts should not cut-and-paste descriptions of the latter and apply them to China.

Loading suggestions...