Politics International Relations Middle Eastern Studies
Robert Rabil
Robert Rabil

@robertgrabil

14 Tweets Sep 05, 2022
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Mohammed bin Salman Has Forged a Third Way for the Arab World
nationalinterest.org
nationalinterest.org
Takeaways:
.@potus visit to #KSA is pragmatist regardless of what his critics say. The media focus on his fist-bump with MBS miss the overall picture of Saudi-US relationship.
Biden adm and most Western media have an inaccurate picture of the region and wrong assumptions about what Arab countries want or worry about. US foreign policy has created an environment of uncertainty for Arab rulers, which can be traced back to US invasion of #Iraq.
Both allies and foes of the U.S. in the Middle East have perceived that #USA geostrategic withdrawal from the Middle East is not only a product of its strategic reorientation towards China but also a manifestation of Washington’s declining power.
Arab Gulf countries have been trying to recalibrate their relationship with the US by seeking policy alternatives not necessarily congruent with U.S. policy in the Middle East.
@Potus attempt to reinforce Saudi-US relations is apt but the idea that he will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China and Russia is erroneous and borders on misreading the regional political map in the aftermath of Ukraine crisis. China and Russia are there!
Arab leaders, since the eruption of the Ukraine crisis, have been careful to walk a fine line between #NATO countries, on one side, and Russia and China, on the other.
Arab Gulf leaders, led by @MBS, saw opportunities in the crisis and its global repercussions manifesting in Washington’s reconsidering the paramountcy of the Arab Gulf as a strategic area.
Absent an Arab Cold War pitting Arab conservatives against Arab nationalists, @MBS is clearly attempting to assume the leadership of the Arab world.
Rarely an Arab leader has had support of most populous state, #Egypt, which had set the tone of Arab politics, the Hashimite Kingdom, which has upheld the religio-political dividends of representing the Prophet’s family, and #Iraq, the seat of Arab dynastic power.
From a ME vantage point, Ukraine crisis is leading to the creation of three world camps: A Western Camp, led by #USA, a non-Western Camp, led by #Russia and #China, and a middle non-committed camp. Herein, in the middle camp that the Arab world finds itself!
Arabs would like to balance their relationship with their ally #USA, friends and trading partners Russia and China, new friend #Israel, and neighbor and adversary #Iran without plunging their region into a catastrophic war decapitating their political and economic ambitions.
Washington has underestimated the repercussions and ramifications of its policy vis-Ă -vis Russia for the international community.
The underlying message of the summit is that the Arab world has now a leader, #MBS, whose ambition to lead Saudi Arabia and the Arab world is not predicated on a patron-client relationship with United States; and forging a third way for Arab world!

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