"The first two times I went to Chicago, all I could think about was, 'why doesn’t everyone move here?' Then I went in February and I found out." - @mattyglesias with a skeptical take on Chicago. Much to chew on and agree with here. A thread 1/ slowboring.com
More from Yglesias: "If Chicago enters a downward spiral — which I think it will — that bodes poorly for a whole bunch of other central cities but also I think really for the region as a whole."
More from Yglesias: "If you zero in on the city of Chicago, as opposed to the metro area, you can see that it’s gotten cheaper since the pandemic struck and people place less of a premium on convenient commuting access to the Loop." 3/
The Loop, and its major corporate HQs, have long been the psychological center of the city and state. The indifference of leaders to the Loop's problems and the loss of three major HQs is troubling. It suggests a badly atrophied civic leadership class. 4/
However, Chicago is fundamentally different from other Midwestern cities. While not immune to troubles and not guaranteed to succeed long term, many forces and powerful assets sustain it 5/
The comparison to Detroit is a bad one, but even here, consider that Detroit's decline was known since at least 1960, yet its fiscal problems didn't lead to bankruptcy until 2013, and even then because a Republican governor forced it to happen 6/
Fiscal crises have not materialized at the federal, state, or local level anywhere in America to the extent many might have expected in light of huge debt levels. Perhaps a rising interest rate environment will cause one, but I wouldn't short Chicago just because of pensions 7/
Chicago is too big to analyze as a unit, but lacks clear sub-geographies like NYCs boroughs. Conceptually thinking of it, as @petesaunders3 did, as "1/3 San Francisco, 2/3 Detroit" illuminates important nuance. 8/
A sub-city as big or bigger than SF, DC, or Boston is doing very well in terms of desirability. This region probably has the best quality/price ratio of urbanism in the US. 9/
Chicago's has the only truly affordable genuine urbanism at scale in America. A place a regular professional couple can buy a nice, humanely sized condo with a parking space that you could even have kids in. Hard to believe that will be abandoned by the market. 10/
Add to that the city's amenities (the lakefront, high culture second only to NYC), its top ranked universities, logistics hub status (esp O'Hare), and natural catchment area as capital of a large albeit declining region. Chicago has a lot going for it Detroit never did 11 /
Chicago's fundamental problem has long been that it attracts B talent, not the A talent of the coasts. But in a sense that protects them. Most Chicagoans realistically can't move to NYC. Only a minority of Big 10 grads who want the city experience qualify for the coasts. 12/
Also, the second tier cities of the Midwest have experienced dramatic run-ups in price, which makes them candidly unattractive vs. Chicago. Urban Indy is almost as expensive as much of Chicago, for a much less compelling product 13/
There are no more deals to be had in American urbanism, and if Chicagoans want to head to Texas or Nashville or wherever, they might well end up paying more. This also helps prop up the city. 14/
Again, there are big, dark clouds over Chicago. Dallas is replacing it as the major interior business center, for example. That will have profound long term consequences. 15/
The challenges facing the Loop office market and the Michigan Ave. retail districts shouldn't be denied. Nor should the very real problem of crime. 16/
The Yglesias decline scenario is one local leaders in Chicago should take seriously. It's not fated to happen, however. /END
@aarmlovi Yglesias new piece on Chicago.
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