Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait. All 3 are associated with the PLA.
The first of these ferries is the ZHONG HUA FU XING. Built in 2019, it's owned by the Bohai Ferry Group (as are all 3 ferries), which is organized as the 8th Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia. It was used to transport tanks in a 2021 exercise. taiwannews.com.tw
@MarineTraffic AIS data shows that this ferry left the Bohai Gulf after a port visit to Tianjin (near where it loaded tanks in 2021) and is now transiting southbound toward the northern approaches to the Taiwan Strait. Its destination is Shantou, across the Strait from S Taiwan.
ZHONG HUA FU XING appears to normally operate on a route between Dalian and Yantai (across the Yellow Sea), so this is a significant departure from its normal operating pattern.
Next up: BO HAI MA ZHU, another large Bohai Ferry vessel, built in 2015. It appears to have also departed its normal route between Dalian and Yantai, and is now down at Qingdao. Its specific location at Qingdao is not the normal ferry landing, it looks like a commercial port.
The 3rd ferry of interest is BO HAI ZUAN ZHU, also operated by Bohai Ferry and built in 2015. It appears to have loaded in Tianjin & is now in the Strait, headed for Guangouβnear Shantou on the southern end of the Strait. It also normally operates between Dalian and Yantai.
So, what does this all mean? First, I think it's highly likely that these ferries ARE engaged in some sort of operation for the PLA, as they're way off their normal routes at the same time. It could be part of a long-planned exercise, or perhaps a reaction to recent events. π€·ββοΈ
To be sure, these ferries alone cannot carry a large enough force to invade Taiwan itself, and the rest of China's ferries appear to be on their normal routes for now. But perhaps they could carry enough to assist in seizure of a smaller island. I guess we'll see...
Would you like to know more?
A quick update on what the three ferries I mentioned above are up to now. First, ZHONG HUA FU XING, which after transiting south now appears to be at anchor off of Guang'ao Bay. While I don't know of previous exercises in this exact spot, those look like decent beaches for one.
Next, BO HAI MA ZHU: after its stop in Qingdao, it appears to have made a short transit down to Rizhao. Bohai Ferry vessels have been seen conducting exercises at nearby ports and beaches in the past.
BO HAI ZUAN ZHU appears to have transited down to where ZHONG HUA FU XING is now, and then headed back up to Xiamen, where it is now at anchor. Perhaps it participated in an exercise and is now back in port?
If I was worried about the PLA seizing anything to punish Taiwan, it would probably be Pratas Island, which is less than a day's transit from Xiamen and even closer to Shantou.
This is a potentiality (I wouldn't say likely, but possible) that I've discussed in the past:
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