A lot of people were astonished to learn that covid and now monkey pox was spreading exponentially.
They shouldn’t have been.
Read this short thread to see why exponential growth is obvious and why what comes after that is even more important.
They shouldn’t have been.
Read this short thread to see why exponential growth is obvious and why what comes after that is even more important.
All populations of living things (like the covid or moneypox viruses) grow exponentially:
Until they don’t:
The fact that the early growth of a new infectious disease is exponential is completely unsurprising.
It’s a logical consequence of reproduction because the population multiplies itself by a fixed factor every reproduction cycle.
It’s a logical consequence of reproduction because the population multiplies itself by a fixed factor every reproduction cycle.
We’ve known about this at least since Thomas Malthus published “An Essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798.
What’s more interesting than the exponential phase is the timing and mechanics of the stationary phase and decline.
For disease-causing organisms, can we predict when these phases will occur. Can we make them happen faster?
This is where the novel science comes in.
For disease-causing organisms, can we predict when these phases will occur. Can we make them happen faster?
This is where the novel science comes in.
Follow me for more musings at the intersection of math and reality.
Loading suggestions...