The 12 Bitcoin Capitulations.
The raw count of evidence for major Bitcoin capitulation today is insane.
Each occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.
Let’s take a look at the 12 signs #Bitcoin capitulation:
The raw count of evidence for major Bitcoin capitulation today is insane.
Each occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.
Let’s take a look at the 12 signs #Bitcoin capitulation:
(1) Supply transferred at a Loss (NEW METRIC).
The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month. Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.
The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month. Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.
(2) BitFinex Whales are Dead.
BitFinex is known as the "home of whale traders", it has seen its Bitcoin perp Open Interest drop over 70% in the last 2 months.
BitFinex whales have been clinically wiped out.
BitFinex is known as the "home of whale traders", it has seen its Bitcoin perp Open Interest drop over 70% in the last 2 months.
BitFinex whales have been clinically wiped out.
(3) Consumer Confidence (CCI) at an All Time Low.
CCI measures consumer sentiment, expected consumption and savings. CCI just hit an all time low.
Lower than the 2020 Corona Crash,
...lower than the 2008 GFC, and
...lower than the high inflation of the 1970s / 1980s!
CCI measures consumer sentiment, expected consumption and savings. CCI just hit an all time low.
Lower than the 2020 Corona Crash,
...lower than the 2008 GFC, and
...lower than the high inflation of the 1970s / 1980s!
(4) Bitcoin is Dead.
Worldwide google searches for “Bitcoin dead” hit its highest level on record this June. This is another useful barometer for market sentiment.
Rothchild: "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"
Worldwide google searches for “Bitcoin dead” hit its highest level on record this June. This is another useful barometer for market sentiment.
Rothchild: "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"
(5) Short-Term Holder Capitulation.
In November 2021, 90% of the market were short-term holders. ST holders have capitulated, and now represent just 58%.
A growing base of long-term holders has historically built out the base of the bear-market for the next bull-run.
In November 2021, 90% of the market were short-term holders. ST holders have capitulated, and now represent just 58%.
A growing base of long-term holders has historically built out the base of the bear-market for the next bull-run.
(6) Hash Ribbon Miner Capitulation.
Our Hash Ribbon indicator shows that the current miner capitulation has been going for 55 days, and is set to breach the two month mark.
There have only been 3 other miner capitulations of longer duration than todays in Bitcoin history!
Our Hash Ribbon indicator shows that the current miner capitulation has been going for 55 days, and is set to breach the two month mark.
There have only been 3 other miner capitulations of longer duration than todays in Bitcoin history!
(7) The Worst Stock Market Real-Returns in 250 Years.
We have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations.
Enough said.
We have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations.
Enough said.
(8) Capitulation in Money Supply Growth.
The M2 growth rate is now approaching the lows of the last decade. A slowdown in the current rate of tightening from here would make sense.
As @RaoulGMI notes, manufacturing is a leading indicator and suggesting a turn is now occurring.
The M2 growth rate is now approaching the lows of the last decade. A slowdown in the current rate of tightening from here would make sense.
As @RaoulGMI notes, manufacturing is a leading indicator and suggesting a turn is now occurring.
(9) On-chain Capitulation: DNTV
Dynamic Range NVT, Bitcoin’s “PE Ratio”, has capitulated to March 2020 lows.
Lower than the December 2018 Bitcoin low.
Look at the recent sharp up-tick. A sign of positive growth in a value region which can suggest a macro turning point.
Dynamic Range NVT, Bitcoin’s “PE Ratio”, has capitulated to March 2020 lows.
Lower than the December 2018 Bitcoin low.
Look at the recent sharp up-tick. A sign of positive growth in a value region which can suggest a macro turning point.
(10) More On-chain Capitulation: NUPL
Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has hit the reset button.
It briefly went into negative territory, suggesting a high ratio of losing positions in the market.
Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has hit the reset button.
It briefly went into negative territory, suggesting a high ratio of losing positions in the market.
(11) Yet more on-chain capitulation: MVRV
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) entered the capitulation zone in June (the green zone on the chart below) but has now already started to recover.
#deepvalue
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) entered the capitulation zone in June (the green zone on the chart below) but has now already started to recover.
#deepvalue
(12) The ultimate sign of capitulation: Bankruptcies
Take a look at the level of institutional capitulation here.
Leverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.
Take a look at the level of institutional capitulation here.
Leverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.
In the last 2 months, we have seen capitulation in many of the most important Bitcoin metrics and across many of the largest digital asset institutions.
Together these 12 capitulation metrics paint a picture of relative long-term opportunity.
Can you find more?
Together these 12 capitulation metrics paint a picture of relative long-term opportunity.
Can you find more?
Read more in @capriole_fund's free monthly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox:
Loading suggestions...