AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq

@BigManBakar

46 Tweets 2 reads Aug 05, 2022
The Preview: GW1 - A thread
Greetings everyone. Welcome to the first preview thread of the season where I help you in building your GW1 squad:
Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️
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Here in this article, I share my own team for GW1 and explain the reasons for each one of my selections: 👀
fantasyfootballhub.co.uk
Q) Kane or Haaland – and why?
I'm still on Haaland over Kane. If he can register a 1.5+ xG against Liverpool, I can only imagine the kind of chances he'll get against the lesser sides. Man City create a silly amount of chances and historically, Haaland has been an xG...
... overperformer. I can't look past City v BOU in GW2. I also think with Haaland’s ownership, picking Kane over Haaland at the start is too risky. Not having a City attacker at home to Bournemouth in GW2 after a week's rest when over half the game will own him & most will...
... captain could end up in disaster. Not the kind of risk you want to be taking early on! Remember, this is what Bournemouth’s own manager Scott Parker had to say after their own pre-season: (Bailey owners also take note!)
“It’s clear that we are lacking in a lot of...
... areas. We’re short at the moment, that’s very, very clear. We are six days out from the start of the Premier League season and we’re way short of where we need to be. That’s the cold, hard facts really. We barely have any defenders. We’ve lost eight at the start of the...
... season, at this present moment in time this squad is much weaker than it was when we got promoted.”
Further, I don’t think it’s wise to start with Kane and mentally be prepared to transfer him out for Haaland in GW2 – I believe in a waste of a precious transfer...
... In fact, Haaland has better odds to score a goal than Kane in GW1.
Q) Three premiums or not?
I think most three premium squads at this point are based on fear of missing out - "What if Kane/Salah/Haaland haul & I don't own them?" I just think you can do so much better with your squad by picking two (c) picks from those and spending...
... the money around. In my humble opinion, it's not even close!
Ask yourself which of the following combinations is better:
*Kane/Son & £4.5m defender
OR
*Jesus & Robertson/Cancelo + £1m
Therein lies your answer on whether not or not to pick three premiums...
... Jesus is the single most reason I don't think picking a three premium squad is optimal! Don't like the overdependence on the 3rd premium player to go big each week in a three premiums team. Pick the two premiums you want to (c) & build around it.
Q) Martinelli or Saka?
I think Martinelli’s rotation threat has been fairly exaggerated by the FPL community as a result of his price. The Brazilian ended the season strongly and seems to have overtaken Emile Smith-Rowe for his starting position.
Smith Rowe has...
... accumulated just 45 minutes across Arsenal’s entire pre-season, while Martinelli has been starting regularly and looking sharp every single time he plays.
He delivered another solid performance against Sevilla in Arsenal’s last pre-season friendly – where he recorded...
... three assists, which has cemented his spot in my team if there was any doubt.
I prefer Martinelli to Saka as a result of the additional £2m saving. Saka is probably a better pick in isolation but there’s so many nice things you can do with the extra £2m...
... I believe buying Martinelli over Saka allows you to have a lot of depth in your squad.
Q) Is it worth prioritizing team structure rather than spending big at the back?
Big at the back with Trent, Robertson, Cancelo and James should be on despite the value that the £4.5m defenders are offering. The consistency & explosiveness of premium defenders is...
... generally unparalleled by the £7-8m midfielders and forwards in the game at this point.
I’ve seen a few people suggest that the premium defences tend to start slowly & take time to settle down before keeping clean sheets regularly. Worth noting that City started with...
... five clean sheets in their first six fixtures last season, Liverpool/Chelsea kept four. This is just a myth! At this point I’d also like to say that this is the first time in my FPL career that I haven't been tempted by a £4.0m defender. Just shows you how much the FPL...
... landscape has changed. Defender slots are incredibly precious this season - too many reliable high upside picks in the game for me to save cash in defence! This is a season where I won't worry too much about price points & structure in GW1. What's important is to...
... prioritize expected points rather than opt for a more flexible structure which makes holding WC easier. Even if things go wrong, you have two WCs to fall back on till GW18!
Q) Robertson, Diaz or Nunez?
This has been spoken of at length in my previous pieces and here I go again. One thing I do when it comes to the top teams is pick the most nailed players with the highest upside. I like Nunez & think he's better than Diaz (expect him to be more...
... of a big chance machine) - but Robertson's ceiling is arguably similar with minutes not in doubt... Easy call!
I prefer Robertson to Diaz:
Last season, Robertson had a 0.76 expected chance of returning (xGi + xCS) per 90 v Diaz's 0.55 (xGi).
Diaz was subbed in 7...
... of his 11 starts & with the 5 subs rule that could limit his chances to haul big. Also factor in that Robertson is cheaper.
Q) Who are the best GKs to select and why?
I Think there is a clear gulf between the £4.5m & £5m keepers this year. Ramsdale for me is the clear £5m keeper to get. Great fixtures, solid defence with saves potential. Really hope I don't have to downgrade him to a £4.5m GK...
... in my squad as it feels like a significant downgrade.
I usually tend to start with £4.5m goalkeepers, but this season has made me rethink that strategy. Only Alisson, Ederson and Hugo Lloris had a better FPL points-per-game average than Ramsdale last season.
Hence, it...
... is to my pleasant surprise that Ramsdale is only owned by 11% of the managers at the time of writing.
Arsenal have a great run of fixtures to start with – they only play Manchester United from last season’s top six in their opening eight fixtures...
... The Gunners kept 13 clean sheets last season, so we know they have the tendency to produce defensive returns when the fixtures are in their favour. Furthermore, Ramsdale has the best minutes per baseline BPS ratio among all the Arsenal defensive assets, which makes...
... him likely to accumulate bonus whenever Arsenal keep a clean sheet. I prefer Ramsdale to Mendy as I believe he has more haul potential – which is why he had a better FPL points per game...
... average than Mendy last season, despite the slump in Arsenal’s defensive solidity in this calendar year.
Until a couple of weeks ago, there were no starting £4.0m keepers in the game. However, Leicester goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel has left for OGC Nice which brings...
... Danny Ward (£4.0m), Leicester’s substitute goalkeeper to the forefront.
These comments from Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers give me further confidence about Ward being first choice to begin with:
“Danny Ward is an exceptional keeper, I’ve always said we’ve got a...
... number one keeper there. If Kasper is to go, he’s a big possibility for us. I think we would still need to bring in another one as a back-up. I’d be happy with that.”
I do however think that starting with both Iversen and Ward in goal is a bit of...
... a risk – firstly, Leicester have been a poor defensive side in recent times and picking both their goalkeepers leave you at risk of having to use a transfer should they buy a replacement. It’s an unnecessary risk to take.
I do like Sanchez’s rotation with Ward as well:
BRE NEW SOU LEE ful bha bou
Q) Salah or no Salah?
We're officially reaching that stage of the season where the no Salah drafts look sexy on paper until the time we all come back scrambling to buy him an hour before the GW1 deadline. I’m confident that the significant majority of FPL managers on...
... Twitter will debate Salah v no Salah only to panic an hour before the deadline seeing him play a promoted side & ending up with him as (c) anyway. Spare yourself the time! The guy has scored in each of his previous 5 opening day appearances – hand him the armband and chill!
Q) Are Cancelo and James non-negotiable?
Cancelo is one player who hasn't left my team even once. I keep seeing teams with three premiums without him. I'd argue he's as explosive as Haaland or Kane.
whu BOU new CRY NFO
The fixtures have returns written all over them...
...The guy was 1st among defenders for shots last season!
Remember he’s playing for the best defence in the league with amazing fixtures to begin with. He was also 3rd among all City players for big chances created and is super underrated at accumulating bonus...
... Similarly, there have been zero clean sheets for Chelsea in pre-season but James is yet to leave my draft. I believe that he's too good as an asset to leave out if Chelsea are playing five at the back - which I expect them to do. Was only behind Trent for xGi per 90 last...
... season and averaged over 6 points per start.
Q) Any Villa defenders worth considering?
I have no idea why people are selecting Digne/Cash in their squads.
Both don't feature even in the top 15 among defenders for xGi per 90 since Gerrard took over. Both Arsenal & Brighton had a better xG conceded than Villa in...
... this spell and have defenders available for cheaper!!
Q) Any Newcastle assets worth considering?
bha MCI wol liv
That is such a rough run for Newcastle from GW2 till GW5. I'm expecting big things from them this season but this automatically rules out Wilson/Trippier/BrunoG at the start for me.
Here is my Fantasy5 selection. Neves, Rice, Kane & Jorginho are on penalties which gives them a realistic chance of beating their targets. In the absence of Martial & Ronaldo, I think Rashford will have to carry the Man United goal threat.
If you would like to show your support, then follow me on Instagram as well heading into the new season for more FPL content! 👇🏻
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That brings me to the end of my thread. Kindly like and retweet it if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible.
THANK YOU! ❤️

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