2/10
Imports were up a minimal 2.3% year on year, to $232 billion. Adjusted for rising prices Chinese imports were probably, once again, down in real terms. This couldn't happen if Chinese workers were benefitting from surging exports.
Imports were up a minimal 2.3% year on year, to $232 billion. Adjusted for rising prices Chinese imports were probably, once again, down in real terms. This couldn't happen if Chinese workers were benefitting from surging exports.
3/10
The net result was an astonishing $101.3 billion trade surplus, once again China's (and the world's) highest ever monthly trade surplus. China's trade surplus year to date is 57% higher than last year's record trade surplus, and amounts to 5% of China's GDP.
The net result was an astonishing $101.3 billion trade surplus, once again China's (and the world's) highest ever monthly trade surplus. China's trade surplus year to date is 57% higher than last year's record trade surplus, and amounts to 5% of China's GDP.
4/10
I'd add two points. First, analysts keep predicting that Chinese export growth will slow because global demand is slowing. It should be clear by now, however, that what is driving Chinese export growth isn't global "pull" factors but rather domestic "push" factors.
I'd add two points. First, analysts keep predicting that Chinese export growth will slow because global demand is slowing. It should be clear by now, however, that what is driving Chinese export growth isn't global "pull" factors but rather domestic "push" factors.
5/10
As long as Beijing continues to respond to weak domestic demand only or mainly with supply-side spending and subsidies, Chinese exports must continue to grow, and China's share of global exports will continue to expand even as its share of global imports contracts.
As long as Beijing continues to respond to weak domestic demand only or mainly with supply-side spending and subsidies, Chinese exports must continue to grow, and China's share of global exports will continue to expand even as its share of global imports contracts.
6/10
Second, an analyst is cited as saying: “The strong export growth continues to help China’s economy in a difficult year as domestic demand remains sluggish.” We are lucky, he seems to be saying, that China can count on strong trade to make up for weak domestic demand.
Second, an analyst is cited as saying: “The strong export growth continues to help China’s economy in a difficult year as domestic demand remains sluggish.” We are lucky, he seems to be saying, that China can count on strong trade to make up for weak domestic demand.
7/10
But this is the wrong way to understand China's trade performance and gets it almost totally backwards. China's trade surplus and export growth aren't "helping" the Chinese economy at a time when domestic demand happens to be weak.
But this is the wrong way to understand China's trade performance and gets it almost totally backwards. China's trade surplus and export growth aren't "helping" the Chinese economy at a time when domestic demand happens to be weak.
8/10
It is precisely because the Chinese economy is performing so poorly that export growth and the trade surplus are so high. China's trade performance is a symptom of the problem, and not a locus of strength in an otherwise weak economy.
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It is precisely because the Chinese economy is performing so poorly that export growth and the trade surplus are so high. China's trade performance is a symptom of the problem, and not a locus of strength in an otherwise weak economy.
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9/10
That should be clear from the import data. In a healthy, well-functioning environment, the revenues from China's surging exports should be recycled through wages into rising consumption and so into surging imports. But imports are flat.
That should be clear from the import data. In a healthy, well-functioning environment, the revenues from China's surging exports should be recycled through wages into rising consumption and so into surging imports. But imports are flat.
10/10
This just shows how troubled the domestic economy is. Rising supply-side spending and subsidies are able slowly (and expensively) to increase production, but because domestic demand remains so weak, this production has nowhere to go but abroad.
This just shows how troubled the domestic economy is. Rising supply-side spending and subsidies are able slowly (and expensively) to increase production, but because domestic demand remains so weak, this production has nowhere to go but abroad.
1/2
Global Times cites a Chinese think tanker as saying that "a raft of measures, including special relief for small and medium-sized enterprises and tax reductions, as well as the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, contributed to the accelerated growth in July."
Global Times cites a Chinese think tanker as saying that "a raft of measures, including special relief for small and medium-sized enterprises and tax reductions, as well as the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, contributed to the accelerated growth in July."
2/2
Yes, and these mostly supported the supply-side while weakening demand. It then quotes a MoC spokesperson as saying "China will implement a series of measures to stabilize and improve the quality of foreign trade in the second half of the year to consolidate its resilience."
Yes, and these mostly supported the supply-side while weakening demand. It then quotes a MoC spokesperson as saying "China will implement a series of measures to stabilize and improve the quality of foreign trade in the second half of the year to consolidate its resilience."
3/3
Expect more "push" factors, in other words, that will cause both export and import growth to continue to surprise, although in opposite directions.
globaltimes.cn
Expect more "push" factors, in other words, that will cause both export and import growth to continue to surprise, although in opposite directions.
globaltimes.cn
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