11 Tweets 83 reads Aug 13, 2022
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above
We can then use this data to assess the day & trend that Mondays high or low is ran
What I did in my testing was use an 'R' for high ran, & an 'S' for low swept
I also noted the given day that this occured, & also used the 21EMA to determine pro trend or counter trend
Pro Trend:
Here you can see the data from a pro trend, & the occurrences of $BTC running a high, or sweeping a low
There were 56/100 occurrences of a pro trend run / sweep.
Let's take a look at the percentages next
Pro Trend (PT) Chance / %
You can see how important the Monday high or low is compared to the rest of the week.
As @RektProof mentions, let the Mon range form
You can see why this is so relevant.
In a PT, there's a combined 77% of the Monday low or high being ran on a Tuesday
Counter Trend (CT)
In a counter trend environment, where the 21 EMA was used to determine this (trading above 21 EMA = pro trend, & vice versan)
In a CT, there were 41/100 occurrences that were recorded.
Note that it's most likely that Mon or Tues for a run or a sweep here
Counter Trend Chance / %
Here's the chances of the above occurrences, again we see that there's such a strong liklihood of Monday high or low being ran on a Tuesday
We've now covered 97/100 occurrences though
Inside Weeks:
There were only 3 weeks out of 100 where the Monday high or low was not ran or swept. These were:
- WC 12 Oct 2020
- WC 26 July 2021
- WC 11 April 2022
It's fair to say that this phenomenon occurs once per year
This data took me 8 or so hours to compile on a rainy day back in May, but it goes to show how valuable it is.
If you want this data, I don't mind sharing it at all.
It's located here, with all of my other free content:
bit.ly

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