The “we were never asked” thread about immigration.
Let’s start in 1992. The Tory manifesto acknowledged increased refugee flows and pledging to limit them.
But they did not deliver: net immigration 93-97 was 255k, double the rate of the previous decade.
Let’s start in 1992. The Tory manifesto acknowledged increased refugee flows and pledging to limit them.
But they did not deliver: net immigration 93-97 was 255k, double the rate of the previous decade.
In 1997, the Major government was replaced by Blair’s New Labour. They were clear about immigration (not just refugees) on the need for “firm control … properly enforced”.
After the Major government had doubled net migration, the Blair government doubled it again - 640k 98-01.
After the Major government had doubled net migration, the Blair government doubled it again - 640k 98-01.
This speed and volume of immigration hadn’t happened here before; even in the ‘Windrush era’, inflows hadn’t been like they were once Blair got started. Net migration went above 100k inflow for the first time in 1998 and has only once been below, in 2020 when Covid started.
Sadly I can’t find Labour’s 2001 manifesto, but The Guardian does give us a snippet on the discussion. Blair talks tough on asylum but he does “note” “some economic immigration was necessary” - but he was clear that this would be tightly policed.
2002-05: 892k net migration
2002-05: 892k net migration
Labour in 2005 were on the case though - “only skilled workers [will be] allowed to settle long-term, with English tests for everyone … an end to chain migration.”
2006-10 net migration: 1,252k despite the worst economic contraction of the postwar era.
2006-10 net migration: 1,252k despite the worst economic contraction of the postwar era.
![Labour in 2005 were on the case though - “only skilled workers [will be] allowed to settle long-term...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaiWrW_XkAcZbSm.jpg)
We should note the 2005 election happened just after the accession of eight countries (including Poland) to EU free movement. Ministers had assured Britain they had an estimate of a “trickle” of just 13,000 migrants coming from Poland - it was more like 750k in the end.
2010 and Labour lose office, in part because of immigration. The (long) Conservative manifesto commits to net migration “back to the levels of the 1990s - tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands”.
2011-15 net migration: 1,236k
2011-15 net migration: 1,236k
EU free movement did not make the the “tens of thousands” goal impossible: ONS say 1.4m non-EU nationals arrived 2011-15, more than enough to reduce the net flow to negative let alone below 499k net level implied by the “tens of thousands”. The Conservatives just didn’t do it.
2015 and the Tory manifesto had 2.5 full pages about immigration! The “tens of thousands” promise was made again, with promises on EU migration, and stopping asylum.
Only two years this time, but the pace holds: 2016-17 net migration 501k.
Only two years this time, but the pace holds: 2016-17 net migration 501k.
If you read that one, they talk about their 20,700 annual cap on “skilled migration from outside the EU”. It’s a recurring theme from both parties to talk up very restrictive immigration channels while avoiding discussion of other routes which are far more important in practice.
2017 and the Home Secretary who’d never delivered on those promises is now Prime Minister. Her manifesto pledges again “tens of thousands” and congratulates the government for “more control in the system”, with even more on the way after Brexit!
2018-19 net migration: 503k
2018-19 net migration: 503k
2019 and it’s Boris, taking back control. The “tens of thousands” pledge has been dropped, but there’s a big promise on “fewer low-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down”
2020 was the year the “tens of thousands” pledge actually happened - because of Covid, but…
2020 was the year the “tens of thousands” pledge actually happened - because of Covid, but…
The ONS have changed the data, but their estimate to the year to June 2021, is that net migration was 239k - despite including the second lockdown and some likely post-Brexit outflows of EU nationals. Visa data up to March this year set a new record, with over a million issued.
Over these last 30 years, no government has been elected on anything other than a promise to control immigration and yet immigration has proceeded at a transformative speed, adding millions of foreign nationals to the resident population.
Not once did a party close to forming a government announce it would maintain immigration at its prevailing level - at most there was a small, apologetic caveat to say “some immigration is good - but only a little bit and we will be very tough about it”.
And yet time after time, they didn’t just maintain immigration at a level they wouldn’t publicly defend - once they had office, they increased it.
So much has this become the norm, that now we are told - between elections, they are a bit braver - that the country “can’t survive” without immigration; that immigrants “built Britain”; that the NHS would “fall apart” without them; that universities would be bust without them.
None of this is true - and even where there would be adjustment problems, it is an indictment of our masters that they’ve run the country as a Ponzi scheme, dependent on ever greater infusions of foreign labour - and yet the country’s economy is moribund, its society in tatters.
(A note on data for net migration. The statistics are subject to a lot of problems, but I used the Bank of England’s very handy ‘Millennium of Macroeconomic Data’ up to 2015 and then ONS data directly from there.)
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