I think the best explanation is that these attacks are being done by UAVs launched by Ukrainian SOF in Crimea. The fact that we've seen two UAV attacks in Sevastopol and Russian air defenses active many nights in Kerch, Sevastopol, and Yevpatoria also points to this explanation.
The reason people think ATACMS might be involved is because of the range from the front lines and the size of the craters at Saki Airbase. The other explanation is that Russia left bombs and other ammunition near the aircraft and UAVs targeted them. 2/
Even small UAVs with grenades or 82mm mortar rounds could be enough to detonate aviation bombs, which could lead to large craters. Ukraine had recent sat photos knowing where these bombs were located to target them. I think @Justin_Br0nk was right. 3/
As I said in the first tweet, we know Ukraine is conducting UAV attacks in Crimea, and if the UAVs approached Saki from the east or south, it makes sense that they wouldn't necessarily be videotaped (there were more people on the beaches or north of the base). 4/
If Ukraine was using ATACMS, Russia would know and they would say so. Moscow has been trying to paint this as a war with NATO and the West, not just with Ukraine. Russia blames HIMARS GMLRS for the majority of strikes behind Russian lines. Why wouldn't they say something? 5/
Ukrainian officials have said the attack was conducted by Ukrainian SOF. Also, if Ukraine had ATACMS, there are a number of high-value targets that have not been attacked. Why aren't we seeing similar attacks beyond GMLRS/Tochka-U range in the Donbas? 6/
When the US provided HIMARS, US officials made a clear point that ATACMS would not be provided because of escalation risks. If the US provided them now, it would give Moscow the signal that the US' escalation appetite is greater. I doubt the Biden admin wants to signal that. 7/
Notably, there have been other attacks in Crimea, but none showed the huge craters or explosions that occurred at Saki Airbase. That indicates that the large explosions at Saki were the result of bombs or fuel exploding, not necessarily the munition used. 8/
Why hasn't Belbek airfield been destroyed? Why hasn't the Black Sea Fleet been targeted in port? Why hasn't the Antonovsky bridge been targeted with ATACMS, which would do far more damage than GMLRS? We would see army-level command posts destroyed if Ukraine had ATACMS. 9/
I was open to the ATACMS explanation when the attack occurred, but it seems less and less plausible at this point. And we know Ukraine is having success targeting Russian positions far from the front lines with commercial UAVs. 10/
I could be wrong, but cruise missiles almost certainly would have been videotaped by people on the beaches near the airbase and imo we would have seen other things occur if Ukraine had ATACMS. 11/
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