1/ What are the REASONS for early DENIAL & continuing RESISTANCE & obfuscation by @WHO, @CDCGov & Other Public Health to the fact that #COVIDisAirborne?
We just published a paper on the contribution of history. Which is important, but NOT most important
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
We just published a paper on the contribution of history. Which is important, but NOT most important
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
2/ Yesterday I wrote a 133 tweet thread explaining our recent paper and most of the history.
Some people think it is too long to read, and that it doesn't do justice to the main reason. So this (hopefully shorter) thread tries to address that.
Some people think it is too long to read, and that it doesn't do justice to the main reason. So this (hopefully shorter) thread tries to address that.
3/ IMHO, the reasons for the denial, resistance and obfuscation of #COVIDisAirborne by @WHO @CDCgov etc. are:
(a) Politics and economics. Droplets and surfaces are VERY convenient to those in power. All the responsibility is on the individual.
telegraph.co.uk
(a) Politics and economics. Droplets and surfaces are VERY convenient to those in power. All the responsibility is on the individual.
telegraph.co.uk
4/ #COVIDisAirborne is VERY inconvenient to those with POLITICAL POWER and to the larger ECONOMIC INTERESTS (e.g. large corporations) that have the most influence on them.
It scares ppl, who'd consume (e.g fly) less, and requires expensive measures.
telegraph.co.uk
It scares ppl, who'd consume (e.g fly) less, and requires expensive measures.
telegraph.co.uk
5/ We know how political and economic power deals with INCONVENIENT SCIENCE. They deny, resists, obfuscate and delay as much as feasible.
Prime example is climate change. We have known for many decades, yet the fossil fuel industry and allies (~20% of World GDP) stalls progress
Prime example is climate change. We have known for many decades, yet the fossil fuel industry and allies (~20% of World GDP) stalls progress
6/ But if it had been SCIENTIFICALLY CLEAR from the start that #COVIDwasAirborne, and it was WIDELY ACCEPTED by Public Health and Infectious Disease scientists...
those in power could not have resisted change as successfully as they have managed to do until now.
those in power could not have resisted change as successfully as they have managed to do until now.
7/ So why wasn't it clear. These are the other key reasons:
(b) History set up a bad situation over a century
(c) When it became clearer and clearer that @COVIDwasAirborne, saving face by those in power in Public Health and Infectious Diseases became a critical driver too
(b) History set up a bad situation over a century
(c) When it became clearer and clearer that @COVIDwasAirborne, saving face by those in power in Public Health and Infectious Diseases became a critical driver too
8/ Some people were replying to yesterday's thread saying that PH and ID people KNEW early in the pandemic that it was airborne, and chose to hide it.
I disagree. I think the overwhelming majority of PH and ID were genuinely confused and thought airborne was totally wrong
I disagree. I think the overwhelming majority of PH and ID were genuinely confused and thought airborne was totally wrong
9/ We met with the @WHO officials & IPC committee in Apr 2022. The Chairman of the @WHO IPC committee YELLED at us. They thought that suggesting that #COVIDwasAirborne was just crazy.
This (great) article in @WIRED recounts some of those discussions:
wired.com
This (great) article in @WIRED recounts some of those discussions:
wired.com
10/ Months later, in July 2020, another @WHO IPC committee member (@metadoc) said in an interview that we didn't know what we were talking about, and hinted at us having an economic interest to promote airborne.
livescience.com
[An apology would be nice some day]
livescience.com
[An apology would be nice some day]
11/ Also in July 2020 (which is when we came out with the "letter of 239 scientists" about #COVIDisAirborne nature.com) the @WHO staff member in charge of IPC (@allegranzib) told @Nature that we didn't know what we were talking about (more politely, of course)
12/ So I do believe that they really were stuck in the scientific error that's #DropletDogma, and couldn't see past it.
But things started to change in late 2020, and faster and faster afterwards.
But things started to change in late 2020, and faster and faster afterwards.
13/ As enormous scientific evidence for #COVIDisAirborne accumulates, those in charge at @WHO @CDCgov start to realize that #COVIDisAirborne.
E.g. @WHO officials start promoting ventilation without explaining the reason.
youtube.com
E.g. @WHO officials start promoting ventilation without explaining the reason.
youtube.com
14/ @WHO officials knew perfectly well that ventilation ONLY works for airborne transmission. Does NOTHING for droplets or surfaces.
They stated this to a journalist (@MeganMolteni) later!
wired.com
They stated this to a journalist (@MeganMolteni) later!
wired.com
15/ @CDCgov Chief Medical Officer J. Brooks had given a talk to the US Nat. Acad. Sci @theNASEM in Summer 2020, describing:
- droplets as large / fall to the ground, limited by gravity
- aerosols as small / float in air, are inhaled
nationalacademies.org
- droplets as large / fall to the ground, limited by gravity
- aerosols as small / float in air, are inhaled
nationalacademies.org
16/ @CDCgov even posted in their website that #COVIDisAirborne in Sep. 2020. But that was removed after 3 days, and replaced by big picture obfuscation (even if many sci. details are correct), which continues to date
I wrote this thread at the time:
I wrote this thread at the time:
18/ Why do @WHO @CDCgov and PH worldwide avoid admitting that #COVIDisAirborne (as much as feasible)?
Partially is again (a) politics and economics. Many US hospitals are for-profit and hold huge sway at @CDCgov. They HATE airborne with a passion, because it costs $$$$ to them
Partially is again (a) politics and economics. Many US hospitals are for-profit and hold huge sway at @CDCgov. They HATE airborne with a passion, because it costs $$$$ to them
19/ For @WHO, there may be some of that, but they also worry about lower income countries.
I head from a colleague who works there that they fear those small budgets would be "Wasted" on ventilation, if they said loud & clear that #COVIDisAirborne.
I head from a colleague who works there that they fear those small budgets would be "Wasted" on ventilation, if they said loud & clear that #COVIDisAirborne.
20/ I.e. top @WHO Officials think other priorities are more important, but that pressure would be irresistible to spend on ventilation (& N95 etc.), if @WHO admitted publicly #COVIDisAirborne
You won't see "airborne" in their extensive Twitter feed:
You won't see "airborne" in their extensive Twitter feed:
21/ Sorry, I have to take a break to take our kid to the dentist. He may need to get braces but he is not happy about it.
I will continue the thread later today I hopefully can keep it below 35 or 40 tweets
I will continue the thread later today I hopefully can keep it below 35 or 40 tweets
22/ So the MAIN reason we are stuck now with resistance and obfuscation, now that the science is clear to ALMOST ALL SCIENTISTS is...
that the protective measures needed to reduce transmission when #COVIDisAirborne are VERY UNDESIRABLE to political and economic power (cost $$ $)
that the protective measures needed to reduce transmission when #COVIDisAirborne are VERY UNDESIRABLE to political and economic power (cost $$ $)
23/ @WHO and @CDCgov and ministries of health (e.g. @sanidadgob) are first and foremost POLITICAL organizations.
If there is conflict between science and politics, POLITICS ALWAYS WINS. And those in power HATE the cost & impact of protective measures needed for #COVIDisAirborne
If there is conflict between science and politics, POLITICS ALWAYS WINS. And those in power HATE the cost & impact of protective measures needed for #COVIDisAirborne
24/ But that's not the whole reason why @WHO @CDCgov obfuscate on #COVIDisAirborne
There is reason (c):
(c) When it became clearer and clearer that @COVIDwasAirborne, saving face by those in power in Public Health and Infectious Diseases became a critical driver too
There is reason (c):
(c) When it became clearer and clearer that @COVIDwasAirborne, saving face by those in power in Public Health and Infectious Diseases became a critical driver too
25/ E.g. @WHO told us loud and clear in March 2020 (when we were ALL learning like sponges & willing to do anything to protect ourselves) that:
- UNPROVEN mechanisms (droplets & surfaces) were DOMINANT
- #COVIDisAirborne was MISINFORMATION
- UNPROVEN mechanisms (droplets & surfaces) were DOMINANT
- #COVIDisAirborne was MISINFORMATION
27/ The ACTUAL MISINFORMATION spread by @WHO et al. in the early pandemic leds to the virus spreading everywhere fast, eventually mutating to be more transmissible.
Millions of people have been sick or died. Would CERTAINLY been less if @WHO et al. told us early #COVIDisAirborne
Millions of people have been sick or died. Would CERTAINLY been less if @WHO et al. told us early #COVIDisAirborne
29/ So we have an UNHOLY ALLIANCE between those with POLITICAL & ECONOMIC POWER and those with PUBLIC HEALTH POWER.
PH officials are all too happy to avoid admitting their errors, which suits political power just fine, by keeping transmission confusing and unclear
PH officials are all too happy to avoid admitting their errors, which suits political power just fine, by keeping transmission confusing and unclear
30/ Note that those in PUBLIC HEALTH POWER tend to be all trained in the same way (PH & inf. diseases).
And they have SYSTEMATICALLY excluded airborne and aerosol experts from key positions. E.g. see this paper from @trishgreenhalgh:
wellcomeopenresearch.org
And they have SYSTEMATICALLY excluded airborne and aerosol experts from key positions. E.g. see this paper from @trishgreenhalgh:
wellcomeopenresearch.org
31/ E.g. @CDCDirector @RWalensky has said recently that @CDCgov needs reform, because of poor pandemic response.
This is welcome and useful. BUT... to my knowledge, NO MENTION of including aerosol / airborne scientists at the highest levels.
nytimes.com
This is welcome and useful. BUT... to my knowledge, NO MENTION of including aerosol / airborne scientists at the highest levels.
nytimes.com
32/ So:
(a) political and economic power find #COVIDisAirborne VERY INCONVENIENT
(c) Public Health officials want to save face
are major reasons NOW.
But (b) SCIENTIFIC / MEDICAL HISTORY set us up to make the grip of (a) + (c) overwhelming today
(a) political and economic power find #COVIDisAirborne VERY INCONVENIENT
(c) Public Health officials want to save face
are major reasons NOW.
But (b) SCIENTIFIC / MEDICAL HISTORY set us up to make the grip of (a) + (c) overwhelming today
33/ So then back to (b), the impact of history.
The detailed version is on the paper and yesterday's thread:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The detailed version is on the paper and yesterday's thread:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
34/ IMPACT OF HISTORY in the denial and resistance of #COVIDisAirborne. The SHORT VERSION:
For 2 millenia 400 BCE (Hippocrates) to the 2nd half of 19th Century, Miasma theory (diseases come from the air) was DOMINANT
en.wikipedia.org
For 2 millenia 400 BCE (Hippocrates) to the 2nd half of 19th Century, Miasma theory (diseases come from the air) was DOMINANT
en.wikipedia.org
35/ Between 1847-1898 3 major diseases (cholera, malaria, puerperal fever) that were THOUGHT to be transmitted to the air, are demonstrated to be transmitted by water, mosquitos, dirty hands.
For more detail see tweets #26+ from yesterday:
For more detail see tweets #26+ from yesterday:
36/ This shakes the belief that most diseases go through the air. GERM THEORY revolutionizes the understanding of transmission, also ~1860-1880. All old ideas are questioned and re-examined in light of new knowledge.
More detail at:
More detail at:
37/ Just as it is the case now, political / economic power hated airborne transmission, as it scared people and was harder to fight than other means of transmission. And doctors worried about the social impacts of airborne transmission:
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