THREAD Southeast Asia has delivered an impressive record of development and economic growth over recent decades but will the solutions of old suffice for the world of tomorrow? Many SE Asian governments appear to be on autopilot when it comes to long-term economic thinking. 1/
While there's a range of approaches, most are attempting to follow the lead of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & China. They're trying to mobilise young workers, modernise through large-scale industrialisation & urbanisation, taking advantage of globalisation & regional integration 2/
For the region's major developing economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam - this has been underpinned by generally sound macroeconomic management, limited governance reforms and selective opening to foreign and private capital. 3/
But past tailwinds are easing & there are new headwinds ahead, domestically & globally. SE Asia's demographic dividend will fade soon, as it risks growing old before it grows rich. Phase of hyper globalisation & supply chain diffusion that propelled industrialisation is ending 4/
At the same time, efforts to promote liberalisation, and domestic reform seem to have run out of steam. The region's major economies are caught between a desire for more openness and a desire to protect vested interests in political parties, SOEs and connected tycoons. 5/
As @TriciaYeoh puts it in the debate just published by @LowyInstitute, edited by @RolandMRajah & I, the region has failed to match economic progress with the commensurate development of institutions needed to sustain long-term developmental advancement. 6/ interactives.lowyinstitute.org
Then there are emerging headwinds: the scarring effects of the pandemic, food & commodity price pressures, climate change, & further likely changes to global manufacturing & supply chains (e.g. large-scale automation) that will curb job-creating effects of industrialisation. 7/
So what should SE Asia do about these gathering economic clouds? We asked six leading SE Asia thinkers to share their thoughts in this debate. There are, of course, no easy answers. But we hope these perspectives provide food for thought and debate. END interactives.lowyinstitute.org
Loading suggestions...