Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

9 Tweets 13 reads Sep 02, 2022
One of the best examples is the Event Management Vertical of Saregama:-
Ebitda break even business, but gives access to the artist and helps them with the future songs (all mentioned in the concalls)
ROCE takes a hit, but long term becomes imperative to the business & artist
Or
A lower ROCE can also make the business more anti fragile:-
Carbon black capex for BKT or backward integration for Radico.
Another reason for Lower roce and why it could be Beneficial is when a business enters a new vertical with very high scalability
One example here is:- Syngene
The CRO business is a moderate growing early 20s ROCE business.
Whereas, in order to expand the Total Addressable Opportunity
Syngene has to enter Manufacturing, which prima facie does seem a lower ROCE biz at the moment, however this is what will accelerate the growth from early teens to early 20s or higher.
ROCE isn't the only metric to judge a business.
Another example is that of incumbents already being present and taking natural advantage of their positioning:-
GHCL or the likes of Tata Chemicals
New SODA Ash Plant has payback of 7 years.
However, such is the strength of the industry and barriers to entry. Not many new players enter here-
Inspite of being a commodity, it displays characteristics of a stable margin business.
If I get growth, and I am here to stay for next 2-3 decades.
Doesn't it make to sacrifice a ROCE a bit and deter the entry of the competitors?
Another business, which I don't want to name here.
Studying the history of that business and an interesting pattern comes up:-
You intentionally cap the ROCE at 15-17%, so that others cannot come into what you are doing.
Scale-scale and scale+backwards intergrate everywhere.
Make it enormously painful for someone else to come in.
Will take years for someone to even get to 15% roce.
Thus, Lower ROCE is necessarily not bad @Sanjay__Bakshi

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