Willie and my blog on the latest employment numbers is now up. August was reasonably goldilocks--a lot of jobs added, nominal wage growth slowed, and even though unemployment rose it was for the good reason that more people were looking for jobs.
But...
piie.com
But...
piie.com
In the most likely scenarios inflation will not return to anywhere close to what the Fed or anyone else wants (I want 3%, for the record) with nominal wage growth at this pace.
And in the most likely scenarios nominal wage growth will not moderate a lot as long as there are 2 jobs openings for every unemployed person and quits are high.
We might get lucky and the same nonlinearities that drove inflation up will now work in reverse and painlessly bring it back down. But the Fed is fortunately well past the phase of "hope for the best, plan for the best."
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