@TIA_Investors Bullet Proof Investing 2022 - Some highlights and key learnings- Thread
First speaker is Ramesh Damani - needs no introduction. Veteran investor with decades of experience and hosted many shows on CNBC TV 18.
Ramesh Damani's topic - Lessons and learnings from Late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Requests us to treat this as an unauthorized history of RJ and nothing more.
Big 3 of D Street - RJ, RK Damani, Nemish shah ,all came to market around same time - 1985 and shaped markets in many many ways.
RJ's first bet was Tata Power.
RJ's investing career - 1985 started with Rs 5000 capital and ended in 2022 with nearly 30K cr Rs.
CAGR 68% in INR and 57% in USD terms over 37 years.
RJ's investing career - 1985 started with Rs 5000 capital and ended in 2022 with nearly 30K cr Rs.
CAGR 68% in INR and 57% in USD terms over 37 years.
Recalls how in 1990- FM Madhu Dandavate introduced new taxes and markets reacted negatively but RJ made contra bets.
Established himself as leader of bull mkt in 2004-05 .
Narrates an anecdote in 2021 - RJ was hospitalized with Covid19 but was advising to bet big on new bull mkt!
Established himself as leader of bull mkt in 2004-05 .
Narrates an anecdote in 2021 - RJ was hospitalized with Covid19 but was advising to bet big on new bull mkt!
30 years of Markets - a perspective.
Previous tweet picture /Data shared in context to explain mind boggling wealth generation that happened in India markets in last 30 years.
RJ's success recipe in his words - Focus, looking for big opportunities, uncanny timing, invest first , and above all - Bullish on India.
RJ mantra was - Put money in table. Shares about Titan - how he bought Titan (20 Lakh or so) based on insight of how will grow over upcoming years.
Making big bets based on conviction is RJ's key success mantra.
RJ's big futuristic bets - Fortis (4% stake), Wabag (8.3% stake) and 35% in Unlisted Akasa Air.
Ramesh Damani mentions about 2019 Chennai water crisis and his own conviction in (Va tech Wabag - leading desalination business).
So this is RJ investing style- places bets on big emerging opportunities and listed businesses working on them.
Thus Ramesh Damani concludes his presentation on Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
Next speaker is Madhu Kela. Veteran investor of 30 years and also active on social causes.
MK - Today's world only two markets worth investing - One is US, other is India.
Mentions about huge real estate crisis in China.
Most successful businessman in China has been forced out to irrelevance.
Mentions about huge real estate crisis in China.
Most successful businessman in China has been forced out to irrelevance.
MK - Key Challenges wrt China slide.
MK - Speaks about few sectors he likes. Identify sectors based on headwinds (RE in 2009-13) to avoid.
Financial sector otoh has excellent tailwind now - 17Lakh Crores have been provisioned for bad loans- 20% of lending provided. This is a big tailwind ,worth looking.
Financial sector otoh has excellent tailwind now - 17Lakh Crores have been provisioned for bad loans- 20% of lending provided. This is a big tailwind ,worth looking.
MK - No where in world 20% of bank book has been provisioned.
In his view many banks are still cheap - some at 1 PB, some at 0.5, with excellent ROE.
One can be on them once credit cycle goes up.
Plus he expects lot of write backs in next 3 years in some of the banks.
In his view many banks are still cheap - some at 1 PB, some at 0.5, with excellent ROE.
One can be on them once credit cycle goes up.
Plus he expects lot of write backs in next 3 years in some of the banks.
After decade of low ROE, India Banking industry in good position ,have pricing power.
Other sector MK is interested is EPC companies
Other sector MK is interested is EPC companies
MK says :MCap of all India EPC cos except LnT is less than 75000 cr Rs.
Mcap of Nykaa is Double of these EPC cos (except LnT)
Sector Last peaked in 2008. Half players have retired hurt since.
Mcap of Nykaa is Double of these EPC cos (except LnT)
Sector Last peaked in 2008. Half players have retired hurt since.
MK -Bank guarantees are now available only to large players. Significant deleveraging has happened. Many of remaining ones can do 20% ROE now on.
This is tailwind. Invest in such sectors With tailwind
This is tailwind. Invest in such sectors With tailwind
MK - Mentions anecdote about his investment in Goldstone tech.
Dwells on his association with RJ.
RJs favorite rule - In investing if u go by rule book, mind is closed and u lose many opportunities.
Dwells on his association with RJ.
RJs favorite rule - In investing if u go by rule book, mind is closed and u lose many opportunities.
MK takes Q&A - Mentions how Titan corrected big during Demonetisation (2016) and was good entry opportunity.
MK (Madhu Kela) Concludes his speech.
Next speaker is Ridham Desai ,MD of Morgan Stanley India.
Ridham Desai speaks on "Why this Bull Market has more legs".
Speaks on how MNREGA boosted wages in 2008 and resulting Second order effects including inflation. And discusses Inflation targeting mandating etc
Speaks on how MNREGA boosted wages in 2008 and resulting Second order effects including inflation. And discusses Inflation targeting mandating etc
RD - Corp profits to GDP ratio dropped from 8% in 2010 to 2% in 2019, now going to 4%, predicts will cross 7% soon.
Says on a 4 year Fwd earnings basis India mkt trades at 7 times earnings. So bull mkt continuing thesis based on high Corp profit growth.
Says on a 4 year Fwd earnings basis India mkt trades at 7 times earnings. So bull mkt continuing thesis based on high Corp profit growth.
Huge shift on India flows - 2004 FPI flows was > FDI
Now 2015 -21 FDI flows 11x FPI flows.
This is huge paradigm shift enables India to run a monetary policy regardless of Oil prices.
Now 2015 -21 FDI flows 11x FPI flows.
This is huge paradigm shift enables India to run a monetary policy regardless of Oil prices.
RD - Due to big shift of FDI being now huge, India won't go to recession ,won't do as bad as other mkts during US Recession.
RD- Economy size is 3.5 T$ and in that savings is 700B$ p.a
Household hv just 6-7% in equities.Equity share can go to 20% means 140B$ of additional flows ,good to keep valuation high.
Bond index inclusion discussed
Household hv just 6-7% in equities.Equity share can go to 20% means 140B$ of additional flows ,good to keep valuation high.
Bond index inclusion discussed
RD - Today banks r biggest funders of Guvt Deficit, this will change posr Bond Index inclusion.
Global mcap - 100T $. India MCap 3.5T $, in this Foreign investment is 700B $ - Less than 1% of world Mcap
Global mcap - 100T $. India MCap 3.5T $, in this Foreign investment is 700B $ - Less than 1% of world Mcap
RD - 25% of World GDP growth in 2022 will be from India
RD - Corporate India is most under leveraged among all major world economy Corp sectors at 46%
Household 18% of GDP
Total 64% Private sector debt to GDP lower than most developing nations outside Africa
Household 18% of GDP
Total 64% Private sector debt to GDP lower than most developing nations outside Africa
RD predicts big growth in Bank Balance sheets in next few years.
Speaks about upcoming upside in discretionary consumer spending.
Speaks about upcoming upside in discretionary consumer spending.
RD Quotes Samsung ,which at one stage was 8% of Vietnam GDP..
India is large consumption mkt a well.
India is large consumption mkt a well.
RD mentions pent up consumption- how until recently home sales was lower an year back than in 2012 and it got reversed.
Summarizes all his points again and says can invests various ways on all these themes .
Summarizes all his points again and says can invests various ways on all these themes .
RD also mentioned about India's terms of trade and historic Reliance of same on Oil.
Now says this is going to improve next 10 years, but wont have Current Account Surplus.
Now says this is going to improve next 10 years, but wont have Current Account Surplus.
Thus Ridham Desai(RD) concludes his presentation .
Next speaker is Vishal Khandelwal (VK) founder of @safalniveshak
Veteran value investor and investing coach, faculty in Flame university.
His favorite mantra is - Can't separate value and growth.
Veteran value investor and investing coach, faculty in Flame university.
His favorite mantra is - Can't separate value and growth.
VK speaks on "Art of Investing "
Begins quoting Buffet- Secret of Happiness is low Expectations.
Begins quoting Buffet- Secret of Happiness is low Expectations.
Shares a picture as below and says - not a stock chart. But we humans try to extrapolate things
VK - Picking stocks- living room example , different aspects of home living room represent Some listed business.
VK - Humans getting smarter but investment horizons are getting shorter - so quotes Ridham Desai and says - Do u have legs to participate in it ?
Temperment matters more wrt investing than IQ
Temperment matters more wrt investing than IQ
3 pillars of bullet proof investing- Patience Humility and Rationality.
VK - Crisis in markers recur but mkts recover
VK - Good things happen if you are patient.
Value investing works in Long Term.
Value investing works in Long Term.
VK speaks about Lindy effect.
VK - Is Buy and Hold of great businesses easy ? Check Microsoft
Same Microsoft after a long Buy and Hold. Check here.
VK - Investing is mix of skill and luck. Process more important than faith.
VK - You need to survive the bad days in market and not the average day.
VK - Cheap Stocks can get cheaper and expensive ones can be more expensive
Smartness + Overconfidence is dangerous in markets. P
Smartness + Overconfidence is dangerous in markets. P
VK - Stock selection framework
VK - No business is safe for ever. Some are safe for longer. That's all.
VK - This is good pie chart wrt investing
VK (Vishal Khandelwal)concludes saying Optimise Not for best return but for happiness.
And above all - Being average is absolutely fine.
And above all - Being average is absolutely fine.
Post Lunch session - Next speaker is Pankaj Tibrewal. One of best fund managers -among top 10 rated fund managers . Manages Kotak Emerging Equity fund et al.
PT (Pankaj Tibrewal is to speak on : Themes and Opportunities for next few years .
Firmly believes that- Weath creation is done by catching right tailwind in right sectors and companies.
PT - India Speciality chemicals in 2016 - inflection point. Returns since are 10-50 X.
Feels same wrt India Manufacturing now. Bullishness now coming from demand side.
Morbi Gujarat now 2nd largest tile manufacturer in world. 700 factories. 5000 cr exports 2017,now estd at 17K cr
Feels same wrt India Manufacturing now. Bullishness now coming from demand side.
Morbi Gujarat now 2nd largest tile manufacturer in world. 700 factories. 5000 cr exports 2017,now estd at 17K cr
PT - If executed well,PLI can be a large game changer.
Cites example of Shri City, can be Gurgaon of Electronics.
Cites example of Shri City, can be Gurgaon of Electronics.
Export growth over years
PT is also Bullish on RE and Construction industry revival. And also on Banking sector.
PT - Managing money isn't easy. It's mix of art, science and luck
PT - Great business run by mediocre ppl destroy wealth.
Mediocre business run by brilliant leaders generate wealth.
Mediocre business run by brilliant leaders generate wealth.
PT - Use sites like LinkedIn and Glassdoor to assess businesses
PT speak - Growth is good but not at any cost.
Excessive leverage is a problem
Example- Sintex Industries
Alpha is cyclical but process is permanent
Forensic /Scuttlebutt is important.
Growth is horse, Valuation is the cart.
Excessive leverage is a problem
Example- Sintex Industries
Alpha is cyclical but process is permanent
Forensic /Scuttlebutt is important.
Growth is horse, Valuation is the cart.
PT - 50 years back best investors had information edge.. Now it's temperamental edge
PT says - Stay focused. Focus on incremental improvement wrt inventing. Make reading a habit.
Concludes his presentation .
Concludes his presentation .
Next speaker is Prashant Jain. Needs no introduction, was CIO of HDFC MF - managed more than a lakh crore rupees .
A favorite contrarian investor who called out bubble valuation in sectors multiple times.
A favorite contrarian investor who called out bubble valuation in sectors multiple times.
PJ (Prashant Jain) topic - Economy and Market outlook.
Says this TIA event is his first after quitting HDFC MFs
Says this TIA event is his first after quitting HDFC MFs
PJ - WFH will push more services jobs globally to India . India offers large young English aware labor force.
Outsourcing will only increase.
For first time in 3 decades Chemical/Textile industries etc not complaining about Chinese competition.
Outsourcing will only increase.
For first time in 3 decades Chemical/Textile industries etc not complaining about Chinese competition.
PJ - Manufacturing MNCs wanting to end overdepending on China is a tailwind for India Manufacturing.
Twin opportunity of both services and Manufacturing exports is tailwind
Twin opportunity of both services and Manufacturing exports is tailwind
PJ on macro risks - Oil if it goes 150$ and stays for 1-2 years is a risk. Under investment in O&G space an issue.
Risks due to rising populism.
PJ on corporate profitability- Weak commodity prices + NPAs pushed it to 2% of GDP in 2019. Now should go to 5-7%. China slowdown risk
Risks due to rising populism.
PJ on corporate profitability- Weak commodity prices + NPAs pushed it to 2% of GDP in 2019. Now should go to 5-7%. China slowdown risk
PJ on Valuation- Says India premium over EMs bit misleading
Is concerned on consumption space(FMCG)
Sees value in Banks and Power utilities .
Anti ESG theme doing well.
Energy theme good value around.
Is concerned on consumption space(FMCG)
Sees value in Banks and Power utilities .
Anti ESG theme doing well.
Energy theme good value around.
PJ - Volatility of India equities vs Global shocks has reduced of late .
Should in turn boost domestic equity inflows.
Many nations around world grappling with challenges, India relatively ok now.
Should in turn boost domestic equity inflows.
Many nations around world grappling with challenges, India relatively ok now.
PJ - 1992 peak India markets traded at 40 PE.
Not as expensive now.
Thus Prashant Jain (PJ) concludes his presentation.
Not as expensive now.
Thus Prashant Jain (PJ) concludes his presentation.
The next speaker/final speaker of the day is @VijayKedia1 . MD of Kedia securities , veteran investor of 30 years, a significant individual investor in 15+ BSE listed companies.
Vijay Kedia (VK) speaks on his approach- listens to great investors, connects the dots and invests in ideas.
His topic- Making Small Investors think big
Structural change- Bull markets are now longer, bear markets are shorter now
His topic- Making Small Investors think big
Structural change- Bull markets are now longer, bear markets are shorter now
VK - 2020 Bear mkt for example lasted only few months . 2022 market bottom didn't thus last long. This is a structural change.
VK - invest With mindset of co owners .
VK - Educated People fail more than uneducated in trading !
Trading is a different ball game unlike investing.
Trading is a different ball game unlike investing.
VK - No fundamentals in trading . Only fundamentals is reading fluctuations.
FnO Trading- remember the house always wins.
Stop Loss is absolutely must in trading
Quantity of trading- trade what you can take delivery wrt FnO.
Luck won't save every time in trading.
FnO Trading- remember the house always wins.
Stop Loss is absolutely must in trading
Quantity of trading- trade what you can take delivery wrt FnO.
Luck won't save every time in trading.
VK - Says bull market create stupid investors who in turn create bear mkt.
Biggest wealth created by those who invested in bear markets .
Biggest wealth created by those who invested in bear markets .
VK on exiting investments- Exit when management focus changes for worse. Invest in businesses in distress but with focussed promoter.
@VijayKedia1 concludes his presentation. With this TIA Bullet Proof investing 2022 presentations are completed.
@shyamsek gives a summary of thoughts presented over the day.
@shyamsek gives a summary of thoughts presented over the day.
End of thread.
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