GM - no special sauce other than watchin yields rly yest. Thought abt shorting Japan open (wuda been nice trade) but chose sleep lol, sometimes dabble. General ting, see fintwit and much more so CT projecting a kinda victim complex sometimes....
Governing assumptions are there's no 'edge' in trading data cos 'big boys' hold all the cards, 'what do they know' etc. All complete self psyops. This yr think might be better to think that a lot of the mkt is actually p clueless, reacts slowly, FOMOs, is tunnel visioned etc..
and *at times* srsly the best model for mkt participants is this parable: en.wikipedia.org
..Rather than engaging w/ multi-d beast, 'the mkt', participants busy themselves with projections onto single axes, and sometimes miss drivers /don't see wood for trees. Anyway, phaps bit choppy, fedspk later hopef helps a cpl trades w/ usual ramps/flows. yields in a few, GL!βοΈ
... ps personally p clueless a lot o the time too shud go w/ out sayinπ
, but def in zone where rates and in partic data p potent x-asset, QT ramp up month, bein QT ramp up month innit. Won't last, nothing ever does. rn waiting to see if can bust 3920 net o APAC fade or nah...
Separately, BEI gone the right way net o JH. Fed loves impact of own comms btw, it'll LOVE this along w/ rates up, will be looking for acknowledgement of this fact in JPow chat tmrw, (sometimes longable lyrics, tho he might be puke enjoyoor rn). BoC decision + Mester after open.
Wsj article having a bit of an impact, fwiw 2y up a bit but wud hardly call massively convincing (yet). Still, u can always count on a picopanic in this mkt and take advantage of the dreaded open lol (missed most of 1st candle AFK but thot worth a try again). See how goes...
Little reminder that it's not all abt policy rates btw, in July post 75bp hike below ws mornin after (hence ws happy that FOMC wsn't bart). Mkt rates can do own thing. Anyway so open cud have further sell but here bit cautious tbh cos yields back in rn...
Alrite then, tryna short open again, 3920 stop, tenuous, just in case cash got spooked reading WSJ on the way in this am, see how goes lol, pbbly get squeezed n grumpy.βοΈ
(fwiw took off short cos o crude, see how things pan out)
cpl trades in, can't short every open lol, got Mester top of hr I think. 3940 obvs important lvl, yields still in, see how goes.
Flattened for Mester, main event'll be Brainard l8r I think (haven't heard much from Vice Chair for a long while). Often get a ramp in 10am session but if do get sth meaningful outta Mester perfectly capable o puking mkt into europe close so cautious here tbh. 3930 cud be it lol.
ok this PA is garbage but fwiw I spose is good that Mester tru to form is staying data dependent (dodges 75 confo). For new followers generally I trust her to tell it like it is v the freaks on the board. Europe close can still see some selling b4 ECB and Brainard ~hr after that
Hunting a europe close sell, low conviction but surely get some tp flow b4 ECB?π
π€·ββοΈ ps look at that PA, monstrous shtcoin.
off that, typed an email, spoos squeezed lol, oke.
Rite well who cuda predicted oil -5% lol clearly mkt's liked that (def caught me by surprise but at least meant didn't short open), tryna thread needle a bit here on fedspk punt in case resistance gets sold. Again main events s/b tmrw, and real position smoking moves CPI tuesd
well tp stopped, Brainard speech expresses overtightening risk etc, and emphasises amount done already, fair enuff!
I stress btw, she mentions rates, real yields.
AND ZERO FCKIN REFERENCE TO STONK RALLY.π€£
thx
AND ZERO FCKIN REFERENCE TO STONK RALLY.π€£
thx
rzn for prev post is fintwit meme lvl fixation with panicking abt stonk rally this Summer, while ignoring moves in rates and realz. I.e., stonk rallies are less important than other sht to Fed, as they keep saying, but fintwit panics.
Watchin AAPL ting, been clippin some longs net o Brainard, mkt loves it when Fed acknowledges what they have done alrdy / any invocation of 'overtightening'. Anyway see how Jpow goes tmrw. Longed some BTC too all just intrad may take off pre asia
... ps to be clear today def caught by surprise, caught most ramps decently during Summer, not so today! p relentless lol, but bit more than squeeze - Brainard document echoes last FOMC mins a bit, more dovish than JPow JH spiel fwiw. Big move yields.
Bit of x-asset lag exploit to finish off lol, y not? Small consolation for bein surprised by today's ramp - slow to realise oil/gas drop might be gud rzn to long index (at least didn't short expecting yest PA), and unlike FOMC mins (uze all over that), late to Brainard speechβοΈ
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