1/ Join us later today for the rollout of an important paper by @AndrKolesnikov and Denis Volkov of @levada_ru explaining why landscape of Russian public opinion on the war in Ukraine is more complicated.
๐บ carnegieendowment.org
๐บ carnegieendowment.org
2/ In their paper"My Country, Right or Wrong," Kolesnikov & Volkov use freshly collected public opinion and focus group data to highlight some important nuances including the widening of important divisions within Russian society.
3/ In other words,โOpinions are becoming polarized. Over time, polarized opinions are becoming radicalized. All of that points to growing conflict within Russian society."
4/ Overall, overall public support for the war remains quite strong and stable.
76% of respondents "support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine" (Aug 2022).
That's a very disquieting number, putting it mildly.
76% of respondents "support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine" (Aug 2022).
That's a very disquieting number, putting it mildly.
5/ Average Russians have internalized Kremlin-backed justifications about the war. They increasingly rely on state-controlled TV for news (which is a new wrinkle). But even as supporters insist Russians are the good guys in this conflict they have feelings of horror/fear/anxiety
6/ Notably, there is a pretty big generation gap about the war (30% oppose the war vs 17% for overall population).
But bear in mind Russian society is aging, and the number of younger people is smaller than in other parts of the world.
But bear in mind Russian society is aging, and the number of younger people is smaller than in other parts of the world.
7/ One (possible) silver lining, as Kolesnikov told @RobynDixon__ in an interview, is that nearly half of supporters of the war are also signaling a desire to bring things to a conclusion.
Of course, only one person's vote actually counts.
washingtonpost.com
Of course, only one person's vote actually counts.
washingtonpost.com
8/ Note: Volkov and Kolesnikov tackle questions about the accuracy of polling in an increasingly repressive Russia in their report.
Full paper: carnegieendowment.org
๐บLivestream at 2:15 pm EDT today: carnegieendowment.org
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Full paper: carnegieendowment.org
๐บLivestream at 2:15 pm EDT today: carnegieendowment.org
END
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