Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

4 Tweets Jan 07, 2023
1/4
Total social financing was up by RMB 2.43 trillion in August. This was above expectations but below the average monthly increase this year of roughly RMB 3 trillion.
reut.rs
2/4
Both household and business lending came in under expectations, suggesting that households and businesses are even more reluctant to spend money than expected. PBoC pressure on banks to expand lending to these sectors isn't helping.
3/4
TSF is up this year by an annualized 11.7%, and is 10.5% higher today than it was a year ago. These increases are in line with previous years, but with such weak GDP growth, the rise in this year's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to be around 12 percentage points.
4/4
This would be the second highest on record, at least in recent years. Debt increased in the first 8 moths of 2022 by an amount equal to roughly 31% of the period's GDP.

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