12 Tweets 18 reads Sep 18, 2022
Conte is using Tottenham the right way.
They don't have especially creative passers anywhere apart from their frontline. In terms of technical prowess, their squad is not Top 10 in the league. Possession is both structure and talent. They have structure but not enough talent.
As a result, they play the way they do. Where they can, they will possess the ball because of structure but the opposition's talent will always overwhelm their overall capacity to keep the ball.
Without the ball, a collectively average group can be the best if they are well
organized, as illustrated by Arteta's Arsenal conceding the 3rd least in his first full year.
Luckily for Conte's side, they have some of the best transition players in the world in terms of progressing the ball, breaking through and finishing, so it's very effective.
Conte can't control his team's relative lack of technical talent. But what he can control is off the ball: pressing.
My biggest gripe with Conte's football at Tottenham is not how much possession they have but how much control they have.
You can defend deep with effective
counterattacking threat and give up little or no chances. That is good. It works fine. But it is one phase of control. You can't defend deep or even just defend most of the game for 38 games, no matter how good you are at it, and win this league or be there with contenders.
Time and chance will happen to you. Teams will score their shots or their fluke shots.
Control in football is linked to time spent. How much time are you spending in a certain state? It is okay to defend deep but not OK when you are doing it beyond a certain amounts of minutes.
The reason why City have such a successful defence is simply because the opponents barely spend 10 minutes a match trying to score against them in their own third.
No matter how good your offensive potential is, if you have just 10 or less minutes of trying to score, lmao.
Even if you have Kane and Son on the counter and a good defensive block, other teams or at least some teams will have a good rest defence and possession play that reduces the transitional threat and maxes out their own offensive potential.
But the key thing is not about single
games but aggregates: how much time do you spend doing X over how many games?
Tottenham will also come across teams that give them the ball and little transitional threat, such as Brighton did last season. How do they answer those teams?
But, for me, I would rate Tottenham a
lot more if they, by means of pressing, limited the amount of time the opposition has to force them into a lowblock.
For some teams, this is the entirety of their threat (building up play, sustaining pressure and possession in the oppo third). And even if Tottenham have a good
block to respond to that, they are still playing (depending on the talent) an even field game where they give poorer teams the best chance of beating them.
That is all it is to me: probabilities, aggregates, time and chance expanded over 38 games and how much control you have
over that.
Tottenham have less control of time and chance over 38 games than 4, maybe 5 teams in the league.
Quality of course matters but what matters most is how much chance you are giving each team to beat you by the way you play.
Tottenham give more than elite sides.

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