1/6
A reminder
In a bear market, sentiment can and will go to apocalyptic/suicidal levels.
Are we there yet ... in "Jonestown?" Are we drinking Kool-Aid because we are rekted with no hope?
I would GUESS no.
A reminder
In a bear market, sentiment can and will go to apocalyptic/suicidal levels.
Are we there yet ... in "Jonestown?" Are we drinking Kool-Aid because we are rekted with no hope?
I would GUESS no.
2/6
This is hard to understand
One well-known voice called for a "face-ripping rally" last week because everyone hated the market, down 8% in 5 days.
Another such voice looked at the BofA survey and saw the most bearishness since 2008 and screamed buy. Down 11% in two weeks,
This is hard to understand
One well-known voice called for a "face-ripping rally" last week because everyone hated the market, down 8% in 5 days.
Another such voice looked at the BofA survey and saw the most bearishness since 2008 and screamed buy. Down 11% in two weeks,
3/6
Fintwit degens gave this tweet 8k likes this weekend convincing themselves big profits on longs were coming today because everyone was too bearish.
How did that work out?
Fintwit degens gave this tweet 8k likes this weekend convincing themselves big profits on longs were coming today because everyone was too bearish.
How did that work out?
4/6
To be fair, all their reasoning was correct in a BULL MARKET.
But in a BEAR MARKET, no extreme sentiment is too extreme.
This is why sentiment analysis fails in a BEAR MARKET as it has over the last several weeks.
To be fair, all their reasoning was correct in a BULL MARKET.
But in a BEAR MARKET, no extreme sentiment is too extreme.
This is why sentiment analysis fails in a BEAR MARKET as it has over the last several weeks.
5/6
Be careful of statements about "too much bearishness."
Such statements have been made since Aug and have been disastrous.
Eventually, the market will bottom, maybe tomorrow or next year, and some stopped clock will proclaim they saw it because everyone was too bearish.
Be careful of statements about "too much bearishness."
Such statements have been made since Aug and have been disastrous.
Eventually, the market will bottom, maybe tomorrow or next year, and some stopped clock will proclaim they saw it because everyone was too bearish.
6/6
Until then watch how out of control bearish everyone gets. And remember if you really bought because the crowd was too negative, it was late August and you should be 15% underwater, and it got a lot worse today.
Until then watch how out of control bearish everyone gets. And remember if you really bought because the crowd was too negative, it was late August and you should be 15% underwater, and it got a lot worse today.
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