One of the most scary days in European history of energy supplies
A thread 1/n
A thread 1/n
The sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 happened outside of the Danish Island Bornholm.. Close to Russian territory..
2/n
2/n
The timing is interesting (to say it the least) as the Baltic Pipe running through the same waters was opened today
The Baltic Pipe will supply Poland with 10bcm pr year from Norway to Poland
3/n
The Baltic Pipe will supply Poland with 10bcm pr year from Norway to Poland
3/n
If Russia can strike Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, they can certainly strike the Baltic Pipe as well, but what about the Norwegian pipes to UK and Germany?
Norway delivers 25% of ALL European natural gas
4/n
Norway delivers 25% of ALL European natural gas
4/n
A strike of Norwegian pipeline infrastructure will lead to complete mayhem in European energy markets and likely force politicians to implement industrial lockdowns for a prolonged period
5/n
5/n
Gazprom warning there’s a risk Moscow will sanction Ukraine’s Naftogaz, which would prevent it from being able to pay transit fees, and therefore put at risk gas flows to Europe via Ukraine
This could further worsen the flow situation in Europe (see below)
6/n
This could further worsen the flow situation in Europe (see below)
6/n
If Russia is behind this sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, it would likely be considered a de facto agression against Nato..
This is a serious escalation. I have probably never been as worried about geopolitics ever in my adulthood (remember I am young man)
7/n
This is a serious escalation. I have probably never been as worried about geopolitics ever in my adulthood (remember I am young man)
7/n
I am open to alternative explanations. NOT crystal clear to me that Russia is behind this
Both Nato and Russia holds an interest in making it unclear who was behind this sabotage by the way, so it is very unlikely that we will get the answer anytime soon
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