๐บ๐ธ (1/6) | Key signals to expect a #Recession:
I/ Economic Leading Indicators
II/ Financial Indicators
III/ Big Tech Moves regarding Staff
โก Summary: All signals are flashing red โ
I/ Economic Leading Indicators
II/ Financial Indicators
III/ Big Tech Moves regarding Staff
โก Summary: All signals are flashing red โ
๐บ๐ธ (2/6) Economic Leading Indicators | Conference Boardโs Top 10 Leading Indicators gauge has a 100% success rate in anticipating every #recession over the last 40 years.
*After 2 straight โฌ, a third straight negative print could confirm that an economic #recession is looming.
*After 2 straight โฌ, a third straight negative print could confirm that an economic #recession is looming.
๐บ๐ธ (3/6) Financial Indicators | N.Y. Fed Models Say Risk of #Recession Is Getting Real
*The gauge based on yield curve has been rising steadily and hit 25.2% in Aug. Exceeding 30% historically has predicted a recession one year out.
*The gauge based on yield curve has been rising steadily and hit 25.2% in Aug. Exceeding 30% historically has predicted a recession one year out.
๐บ๐ธ (4/6) Big Tech Moves Regarding Staff | U.S. Tech Cos are leading the cycle. Every move to freeze or cut staff implies that they probably expect a #recession.
*Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta announced freeze or cut over the past three months.
*Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta announced freeze or cut over the past three months.
๐บ๐ธ (5/6) | My view is that the question is no longer about #recession but about its size and duration. Markets started pricing #Fed policymakers could make a mistake by reacting too late, especially with the ongoing crash of the #housing market.
๐บ๐ธ (6/6) | In this context, short-term #inflation expectations (1-year/2-year) have already crashed and are now below 2%.
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