Median PCE inflation rose 0.7% in August--which is an 8.2% annual rate or 6.9% ar for the last three months. These are considerably higher than core inflation.
Median PCE drops outliers which have been large in the PCE lately, in general is more predictable/predictive/stable.
Median PCE drops outliers which have been large in the PCE lately, in general is more predictable/predictive/stable.
Both median and trimmed mean are rising faster over the last 3 months than core. That's because core has been reduced by very volatile imputations for the price of investment advice.
This is the 12 month picture.
Based on the totality of the data--especially labor market data--I continue to think of underlying inflation as 4.5%. But I'm increasingly nervous that is too low not too high.
FWIW, the market is expecting 2.5% inflation (CPI) next year. So they disagree.
FWIW, the market is expecting 2.5% inflation (CPI) next year. So they disagree.
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