For the record, my stance on Russian #nuclear threats is this:
We all knew there would eventually come the first time when an aggressor tries to defend his conquests with nuclear threats.
And it won't be the last time.
What precedent is set now matters A VERY GREAT DEAL. 1/
We all knew there would eventually come the first time when an aggressor tries to defend his conquests with nuclear threats.
And it won't be the last time.
What precedent is set now matters A VERY GREAT DEAL. 1/
I don't take nuclear weapons lightly. They are infernal machines that have the power to end civilization (from the northern hemisphere at least).
But if the precedent coming out from this war is that imperial conquests can be defended with nuclear threats, what happens? 2/
But if the precedent coming out from this war is that imperial conquests can be defended with nuclear threats, what happens? 2/
Not only will Russia try again once it rearms and learns the lessons from its humiliation.
Every tinpot dictator with delusions of grandeur will seek nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction - such as biological weapons.
As will many of their neighbors.
3/
Every tinpot dictator with delusions of grandeur will seek nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction - such as biological weapons.
As will many of their neighbors.
3/
The correlation of forces today is exceptionally favorable for democracies. Ukraine will win this war if we just supply enough weapons and other aid. We don't even need to send soldiers.
This is the best time to draw a line and set the precedent.
4/
This is the best time to draw a line and set the precedent.
4/
Of course, this is ultimately for Ukrainians to decide. If they want to negotiate, we should help them to obtain the best possible deal.
But if they want to keep going and take the risk of even nuclear attack, it would be in our interests to enable them to do so.
5/
But if they want to keep going and take the risk of even nuclear attack, it would be in our interests to enable them to do so.
5/
Those who say we should now hamstring Ukraine and let Putin "save face" don't, in my opinion, understand how these things work, or how Putin and the Kremlin works.
They've already lost face. But they control the narrative and can spin almost anything into a "victory". 6/
They've already lost face. But they control the narrative and can spin almost anything into a "victory". 6/
As long as Putin believes he could snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat by prying the jaws open with nuclear weapons, he may well be tempted to do so.
But the sooner Ukraine demolishes the Russian army's capability to fight, the sooner the jaws snap shut.
7/
But the sooner Ukraine demolishes the Russian army's capability to fight, the sooner the jaws snap shut.
7/
Putin can certainly destroy Ukraine, even out of pure spite, with nuclear weapons.
But he wouldn't be able to achieve his war goals and occupy even parts of Ukraine, if he doesn't have the army needed. Very soon he won't. Armies collapse slowly at first, and then suddenly. 8/
But he wouldn't be able to achieve his war goals and occupy even parts of Ukraine, if he doesn't have the army needed. Very soon he won't. Armies collapse slowly at first, and then suddenly. 8/
As I've argued earlier, nuclear weapons alone cannot now alter the military balance, unless they are used en masse. One, some, or even a dozen weapons are not going to be enough. Reversing the war would require something like a hundred or more weapons. 9/
And merely bombing civilians has rarely (if ever) been enough to win wars. Even Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not "the" reasons World War 2 ended, as I argue in more detail here.
Nor did the decimation of Mariupol collapse the Ukrainian will to fight. 10/
Nor did the decimation of Mariupol collapse the Ukrainian will to fight. 10/
As it shouldn't. Surrendering to a genocidal fascist and his barely disciplined hordes would be a catastrophe. As those with experience from Russian and Soviet conquest know better than the westplaining pundits in Berlin, Paris, London, or Washington. 11/
So. As long as Ukrainians want to fight and want more weapons, we should give them what they want.
Hold fast. This is a test of all democracies and all freedom-loving peoples against all autocracies and all imperialism, today and in the future. 12/12
Hold fast. This is a test of all democracies and all freedom-loving peoples against all autocracies and all imperialism, today and in the future. 12/12
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